* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/28/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 97 95 92 84 74 62 49 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 105 98 97 95 92 84 74 62 49 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 105 98 93 90 85 74 62 49 37 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 8 5 3 3 10 19 24 31 38 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -8 -6 -2 -1 -4 1 4 1 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 359 33 7 293 228 216 222 233 239 240 223 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.8 27.6 26.9 26.3 25.2 24.4 23.8 22.6 22.7 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 139 132 126 115 107 101 89 90 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -51.5 -51.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.9 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.7 1.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 2 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 64 63 63 62 58 51 54 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 32 36 36 36 35 34 30 25 18 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 32 34 23 15 20 28 33 9 -3 4 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 40 36 20 47 38 11 27 57 62 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -4 -5 -4 0 4 7 10 0 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 995 963 935 884 840 732 551 348 167 -30 -128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.4 18.0 18.5 19.3 20.1 22.0 23.9 25.8 27.9 30.3 32.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.0 118.3 118.5 118.7 118.8 118.4 117.7 116.7 115.6 114.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 10 10 11 12 14 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 8 7 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -22. -31. -41. -49. -51. -54. -56. -58. -61. -64. -67. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -6. -13. -15. -17. -19. -21. -22. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -8. -7. -5. -2. 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -14. -24. -36. -34. -31. -28. -25. -23. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -7. -8. -10. -13. -21. -31. -43. -56. -75. -92. -92. -92. -92. -93. -94. -94. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.4 117.7 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.03 0.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.03 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.83 3.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.35 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 2.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 466.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.39 -1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 5.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.35 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 14.3% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 5.0% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/28/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##