* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/27/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 91 97 99 104 106 103 94 88 73 60 43 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 85 91 97 99 104 106 103 94 88 73 60 43 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 85 89 92 94 94 94 90 83 75 62 47 35 23 24 26 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 9 2 4 3 2 4 9 13 23 29 32 46 61 76 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -5 -1 -1 -2 -4 -3 -3 -1 6 1 2 4 -3 -8 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 56 79 171 291 349 37 188 219 216 217 230 223 229 231 224 N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.7 27.6 26.6 26.0 24.8 23.8 23.2 22.3 24.0 29.9 29.8 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 145 141 139 138 128 123 110 100 94 85 104 166 165 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.0 -51.6 -50.8 -51.3 -51.0 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.2 1.3 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 3 1 1 1 2 3 6 5 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 65 66 63 59 56 56 50 48 50 48 47 51 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 30 28 32 34 35 34 36 33 30 25 16 6 19 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 64 59 60 57 65 49 53 56 48 41 50 42 63 30 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 40 52 19 -15 53 51 63 11 11 42 77 98 30 7 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -3 -1 -1 0 4 2 9 18 -1 15 43 30 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 812 864 921 948 970 970 901 815 672 497 321 192 -51 -172 -484 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.7 17.8 18.5 19.8 21.3 23.0 24.8 26.5 28.3 30.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.0 115.9 116.7 117.3 117.9 118.8 119.2 119.3 119.1 118.7 117.9 116.9 115.4 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 9 11 14 14 15 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 12 13 12 9 7 7 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 5 5 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 447 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -6. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -35. -33. -32. -34. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 5. 2. -2. -8. -18. -31. -33. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 1. 4. 5. 8. 8. 12. 8. 4. -3. -14. -23. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 8. 5. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 14. 19. 21. 18. 9. 3. -12. -25. -42. -61. -77. -74. -77. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 17.3 115.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.27 2.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.0 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 6.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.30 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.95 5.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 354.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.51 -3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.2 to -2.3 0.50 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.7% 28.3% 24.9% 19.3% 14.6% 17.8% 13.7% 0.0% Logistic: 42.4% 54.4% 35.8% 30.7% 24.2% 14.8% 1.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 5.1% 10.4% 1.3% 0.8% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 23.4% 31.0% 20.7% 16.9% 13.5% 10.9% 5.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##