* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/27/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 81 87 94 98 103 106 101 99 93 79 63 46 21 19 N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 81 87 94 98 103 106 101 99 93 79 63 46 21 23 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 81 87 91 95 98 99 96 88 77 61 46 32 23 24 25 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 6 9 8 5 3 1 4 8 14 22 34 37 47 56 68 63 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -2 -5 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 -2 6 1 -4 -1 1 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 50 59 63 57 67 289 227 172 204 235 224 234 229 233 223 223 228 SST (C) 29.5 29.0 28.6 28.3 28.3 28.0 27.8 26.8 26.1 25.1 24.2 23.8 22.7 20.6 30.7 30.1 30.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 154 150 146 146 143 141 130 123 113 104 100 89 67 172 167 166 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.8 -51.6 -52.0 -51.3 -51.6 -50.8 -51.4 -50.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -52.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 1 2 3 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 74 72 73 70 71 69 66 59 57 55 47 40 37 37 41 47 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 30 31 30 34 34 37 37 34 28 21 8 12 18 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 53 62 59 48 39 46 34 42 50 52 14 15 0 -2 20 26 200 MB DIV 28 27 45 64 52 18 66 55 74 13 14 33 43 31 32 23 9 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 -1 -1 -2 0 0 6 12 10 6 -16 16 -13 8 -4 LAND (KM) 730 756 792 831 875 923 904 877 820 695 528 350 177 32 28 -258 -537 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.0 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.8 18.7 19.8 21.2 22.8 24.4 26.0 27.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 112.6 113.5 114.4 115.2 115.9 117.1 118.1 118.9 119.3 119.2 118.7 117.9 116.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 11 12 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 21 20 15 13 14 11 8 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 40 5 5 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 515 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -23. -23. -22. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 5. 1. -4. -11. -19. -29. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 4. 10. 12. 17. 18. 13. 5. -4. -18. -12. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 10. 6. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 19. 23. 28. 31. 26. 24. 18. 4. -12. -29. -54. -56. -60. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 16.8 112.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.2 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.66 5.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.40 3.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 5.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.62 -3.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 16.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.14 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.56 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 2.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.6% 31.7% 26.3% 20.2% 15.1% 18.9% 15.2% 12.3% Logistic: 25.1% 37.0% 20.6% 15.7% 14.6% 17.2% 8.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 5.8% 34.6% 11.5% 5.7% 5.0% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 17.8% 34.4% 19.5% 13.9% 11.5% 12.9% 7.8% 4.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/27/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##