* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/26/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 71 76 82 88 99 103 105 103 100 92 83 70 57 40 24 18 V (KT) LAND 65 71 76 82 88 99 103 105 103 100 92 83 70 57 40 24 18 V (KT) LGEM 65 71 77 82 88 97 101 102 98 89 77 66 53 41 29 21 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 7 9 9 4 2 1 4 6 12 15 27 29 33 22 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 1 2 1 0 0 -3 -4 -2 -1 4 1 -3 0 -5 4 SHEAR DIR 46 52 27 16 18 349 14 98 239 220 243 220 233 224 228 209 254 SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.7 27.0 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.4 23.8 23.1 21.8 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 163 163 159 155 151 146 142 140 132 125 120 114 106 100 92 79 68 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.2 -51.8 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.1 -51.5 -50.6 -51.2 -50.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.9 -51.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.3 1.5 1.1 0.7 0.7 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 2 1 700-500 MB RH 74 73 74 72 72 68 67 60 58 57 54 47 39 33 28 20 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 24 26 28 32 34 37 38 40 38 36 31 25 15 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 44 46 56 49 54 55 51 47 33 50 45 40 38 -10 15 200 MB DIV 44 51 45 28 45 43 38 45 40 76 12 15 14 19 28 -28 -34 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -6 0 0 9 6 3 3 -14 -14 -14 -8 LAND (KM) 736 778 782 798 823 907 968 972 968 938 877 763 609 423 279 177 44 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.1 16.3 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.5 18.3 19.2 20.4 21.6 22.8 24.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 110.9 111.7 112.6 113.5 114.3 116.0 117.4 118.6 119.5 120.1 120.4 120.2 119.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 8 8 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 9 9 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 24 24 24 24 19 14 9 8 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 52.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 9. 8. 7. 5. 1. -4. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 17. 21. 23. 21. 17. 10. 2. -8. -16. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 14. 13. 7. 2. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 11. 17. 23. 34. 38. 40. 38. 35. 27. 18. 5. -8. -25. -41. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 15.9 110.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.5 27.0 to 147.4 0.55 6.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 18.9 to 1.4 0.55 4.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 42.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.39 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 7.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 217.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.67 -4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.2 to -2.3 0.66 0.7 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 2.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 25.5% 36.2% 30.5% 23.4% 16.9% 20.7% 17.0% 14.7% Logistic: 10.6% 25.4% 12.6% 8.4% 4.8% 13.7% 8.5% 1.2% Bayesian: 4.5% 39.5% 17.9% 7.5% 3.8% 14.3% 4.1% 0.1% Consensus: 13.5% 33.7% 20.3% 13.1% 8.5% 16.2% 9.9% 5.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/26/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##