* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ROSA EP202018 09/25/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 47 56 65 75 88 99 103 103 104 102 100 94 86 77 62 40 V (KT) LAND 40 47 56 65 75 88 99 103 103 104 102 100 94 86 77 62 40 V (KT) LGEM 40 46 52 60 68 84 97 105 104 102 97 89 78 67 55 39 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 11 11 7 5 4 3 2 6 10 10 23 26 33 33 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -5 -5 3 0 1 -3 -2 -3 -3 -1 1 0 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 47 58 67 66 42 15 345 349 102 134 189 221 211 205 226 216 217 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 28.8 28.6 28.6 28.2 28.0 27.1 26.1 25.6 25.0 24.1 23.9 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 158 158 157 152 149 149 145 143 133 123 117 111 101 99 100 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.4 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.8 -51.3 -51.2 -52.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.2 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.5 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 700-500 MB RH 74 73 72 71 71 71 71 66 63 59 57 50 49 44 36 25 20 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 18 20 24 24 30 32 33 36 37 39 39 36 33 26 7 850 MB ENV VOR 38 35 32 28 29 40 49 49 49 62 64 78 64 66 78 106 34 200 MB DIV 90 79 74 67 56 31 63 32 31 42 48 54 32 11 45 -4 -7 700-850 TADV -2 -1 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -7 -3 -1 0 3 2 4 5 -18 0 LAND (KM) 630 657 693 742 794 808 853 915 963 959 937 912 850 739 635 542 453 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.1 15.4 15.6 15.8 16.2 16.5 16.9 17.5 18.3 19.3 20.4 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 108.5 109.3 110.0 110.8 111.5 113.0 114.5 116.0 117.3 118.4 119.2 119.8 119.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 26 24 22 21 21 23 19 14 9 9 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 468 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 63.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 10. 14. 18. 20. 22. 22. 22. 21. 20. 18. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 6. 3. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 7. 7. 15. 21. 25. 29. 31. 32. 28. 22. 17. 9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 17. 10. 2. -2. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 16. 25. 35. 48. 59. 63. 63. 64. 62. 60. 54. 46. 37. 22. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.8 108.5 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP202018 ROSA 09/25/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.76 8.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 18.9 to 1.4 0.45 3.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.55 4.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 3.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.76 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 124.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.77 -5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.20 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 2.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.63 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 45% is 3.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 38% is 6.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 46% is 9.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 14.7% 44.6% 28.9% 20.1% 14.6% 31.1% 38.4% 46.2% Logistic: 24.7% 58.4% 39.4% 28.6% 40.4% 53.0% 56.5% 26.0% Bayesian: 10.4% 60.3% 41.5% 27.5% 13.3% 45.8% 33.1% 2.1% Consensus: 16.6% 54.4% 36.6% 25.4% 22.8% 43.3% 42.6% 24.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP202018 ROSA 09/25/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##