* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/25/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 46 64 76 80 82 82 77 74 71 67 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 46 64 76 80 82 82 77 74 71 67 68 70 70 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 30 33 38 50 56 54 54 57 59 57 55 55 57 63 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 12 11 19 31 31 14 8 11 18 26 25 20 7 8 16 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 0 5 2 6 2 -1 -4 -7 -2 0 -1 -1 -6 -8 -4 SHEAR DIR 339 318 266 224 217 217 129 27 11 27 33 18 356 289 221 211 194 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 26.9 26.5 26.1 26.1 25.5 25.5 25.5 26.1 25.9 26.1 26.1 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 123 119 114 113 107 108 108 113 110 111 110 111 112 111 102 ADJ. POT. INT. 102 105 104 101 97 94 89 89 90 93 91 90 89 90 91 90 84 200 MB T (C) -57.6 -58.1 -58.0 -57.6 -57.2 -56.1 -55.1 -55.2 -55.2 -55.8 -55.9 -55.4 -55.4 -54.9 -55.2 -55.1 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.4 2.3 1.9 1.5 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.8 1.6 1.1 1.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 4 3 3 3 4 4 6 6 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 55 53 48 44 42 32 32 45 50 51 52 55 57 54 53 56 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 23 27 41 44 42 40 38 36 36 36 36 38 42 44 850 MB ENV VOR 79 96 110 130 154 210 220 194 168 168 156 161 151 144 129 126 143 200 MB DIV -1 48 54 -8 -7 29 -45 -3 -32 -28 -18 5 14 8 21 64 57 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -3 -10 -36 -7 17 8 3 -1 0 -1 0 2 0 -1 -12 LAND (KM) 1697 1722 1751 1749 1752 1667 1548 1443 1373 1321 1292 1270 1228 1185 1122 1077 1039 LAT (DEG N) 32.2 32.3 32.3 32.7 33.1 34.5 35.5 35.9 35.9 35.8 35.7 35.7 36.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 46.9 45.8 44.8 43.7 42.7 41.6 42.1 43.5 45.1 46.8 48.1 49.0 49.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 9 10 9 6 5 6 6 6 5 3 2 3 4 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 6 CX,CY: 4/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 705 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. 11. 10. 9. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 8. 5. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 4. 16. 23. 23. 22. 20. 16. 15. 15. 13. 14. 17. 18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 12. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 16. 34. 46. 50. 52. 52. 47. 44. 41. 37. 38. 40. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 32.2 46.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.37 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.29 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.40 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 55.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.47 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 8.0% 5.6% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 1.7% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.2% 3.2% 2.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 46 64 76 80 82 82 77 74 71 67 68 70 70 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 43 61 73 77 79 79 74 71 68 64 65 67 67 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 36 54 66 70 72 72 67 64 61 57 58 60 60 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 44 56 60 62 62 57 54 51 47 48 50 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT