* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/25/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 39 43 57 74 80 84 85 82 81 78 75 75 78 76 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 39 43 57 74 80 84 85 82 81 78 75 75 78 76 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 30 32 36 48 59 57 55 57 58 59 59 59 60 63 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SUBT SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 11 8 20 35 21 9 7 16 11 16 17 11 14 23 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 0 3 2 7 -4 -7 -4 0 -3 -2 0 -3 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 346 338 313 241 215 199 163 99 1 21 26 30 14 322 222 175 176 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.6 25.9 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 122 124 125 124 119 113 107 109 112 111 110 111 113 113 113 112 98 ADJ. POT. INT. 101 104 105 106 101 95 89 90 93 92 90 90 90 90 91 91 82 200 MB T (C) -57.3 -57.7 -58.1 -57.9 -57.4 -56.8 -55.7 -55.7 -55.6 -56.0 -55.7 -55.8 -55.5 -55.5 -54.7 -54.9 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.6 1.7 1.6 1.3 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.1 2.2 1.1 1.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 2 2 4 5 6 6 6 6 4 3 1 700-500 MB RH 53 57 54 48 44 39 38 43 46 51 53 57 59 56 49 44 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 21 22 23 33 44 43 42 41 37 37 37 37 39 45 47 850 MB ENV VOR 65 81 100 111 136 192 201 185 170 165 156 148 152 138 125 115 160 200 MB DIV 1 12 50 42 -5 15 4 -9 -26 -36 -23 21 45 43 37 75 74 700-850 TADV 3 0 -2 -2 -9 -47 13 10 3 0 -1 -1 0 9 4 -16 -10 LAND (KM) 1587 1618 1651 1678 1711 1668 1558 1431 1310 1238 1204 1196 1168 1129 1069 1007 942 LAT (DEG N) 33.1 33.1 33.0 33.2 33.3 34.6 35.9 36.6 37.0 36.9 36.7 36.5 36.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 47.4 46.5 45.6 44.4 43.2 41.4 41.2 42.4 44.1 46.0 47.5 48.5 49.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 9 10 10 8 5 7 7 7 5 3 2 2 4 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 4 5 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 10. 12. 14. 13. 12. 11. 11. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 10. 24. 25. 25. 23. 19. 18. 16. 15. 16. 22. 22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 11. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 13. 27. 44. 50. 54. 55. 52. 51. 48. 45. 45. 48. 46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.1 47.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.52 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.02 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 159.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.74 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 60.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.42 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.8% 10.2% 6.9% 4.4% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 2.8% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.3% 2.8% 1.5% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/25/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 39 43 57 74 80 84 85 82 81 78 75 75 78 76 18HR AGO 30 29 32 36 40 54 71 77 81 82 79 78 75 72 72 75 73 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 34 48 65 71 75 76 73 72 69 66 66 69 67 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 38 55 61 65 66 63 62 59 56 56 59 57 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT