* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LESLIE AL132018 09/24/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 43 48 57 81 87 92 96 97 99 98 94 92 90 91 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 43 48 57 81 87 92 96 97 99 98 94 92 90 91 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 37 40 44 57 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 17 16 16 11 7 28 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 -3 -5 -1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 6 355 344 325 259 221 205 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.3 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 122 125 125 125 124 117 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 103 105 106 107 101 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.3 -57.8 -58.1 -58.1 -57.4 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 52 56 56 51 47 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 20 21 25 42 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 55 78 103 110 162 221 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 3 9 48 41 -1 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 2 1 0 -1 -19 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1615 1633 1653 1694 1739 1796 1885 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.8 32.7 33.3 33.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 47.6 46.9 46.2 45.1 44.0 41.3 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 8 9 11 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 5 4 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):140/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 513 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 3. 0. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -18. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 15. 16. 17. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. 3. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 25. 23. 21. 20. 18. 17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 22. 46. 52. 57. 61. 62. 64. 63. 59. 57. 55. 56. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 32.8 47.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 2.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.56 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 190.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.37 0.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.42 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.9% 10.3% 7.1% 4.9% 3.8% 0.0% 5.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.1% 3.3% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.5% 2.9% 1.7% 1.3% 0.2% 1.8% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL132018 LESLIE 09/24/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 40 43 48 57 81 87 92 96 97 99 98 94 92 90 91 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 45 54 78 84 89 93 94 96 95 91 89 87 88 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 39 48 72 78 83 87 88 90 89 85 83 81 82 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 39 63 69 74 78 79 81 80 76 74 72 73 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT