* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KIRK AL122018 09/24/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 32 36 42 48 53 52 52 51 50 54 56 59 61 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 32 36 42 48 53 52 52 51 50 54 56 59 61 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 29 29 30 32 34 37 38 38 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 6 8 12 17 10 7 11 17 24 30 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 4 5 3 0 -3 0 1 4 7 8 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 278 260 272 281 284 314 318 300 251 256 247 269 262 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.2 29.0 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.7 29.0 28.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 145 140 143 154 152 150 148 142 148 153 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 142 145 140 143 154 152 150 148 142 148 153 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -54.4 -54.3 -54.0 -54.1 -54.2 -53.9 -54.0 -53.6 -53.9 -53.5 -53.8 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 69 66 67 67 64 65 64 63 66 67 66 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 13 13 11 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 50 45 38 34 34 13 12 3 6 4 13 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 23 28 62 54 37 55 62 48 65 68 41 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -1 -3 -4 -7 -7 -5 -1 0 -6 -6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1506 1447 1422 1354 1179 895 700 614 568 376 245 311 389 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.4 9.6 9.8 10.0 10.1 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.7 12.3 12.9 13.5 14.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.3 36.3 38.4 40.4 42.4 46.2 49.6 52.8 55.5 57.9 60.3 62.8 65.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 22 20 20 20 19 18 16 14 13 12 12 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 10 8 12 11 11 26 26 27 23 37 42 57 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 24 CX,CY: -23/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 31. 35. 39. 40. 41. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 3. 0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -3. -3. -7. -9. -12. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 22. 22. 21. 20. 24. 26. 29. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 9.4 34.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL122018 KIRK 09/24/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.78 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 122.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.80 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.75 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.0% 10.1% 6.8% 6.3% 9.0% 10.7% 16.5% Logistic: 1.9% 15.9% 8.1% 2.8% 1.4% 6.1% 11.3% 26.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.6% Consensus: 2.3% 10.9% 6.1% 3.2% 2.6% 5.0% 7.4% 14.6% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL122018 KIRK 09/24/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 30 32 36 42 48 53 52 52 51 50 54 56 59 61 18HR AGO 30 29 29 29 31 35 41 47 52 51 51 50 49 53 55 58 60 12HR AGO 30 27 26 26 28 32 38 44 49 48 48 47 46 50 52 55 57 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 26 32 38 43 42 42 41 40 44 46 49 51 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT