* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/18/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 25 28 28 28 22 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 20 26 28 29 34 36 37 37 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 20 27 29 29 33 33 33 33 32 32 27 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 20 22 36 50 64 52 56 56 44 47 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -2 2 0 -1 -2 3 3 6 12 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 275 255 266 253 240 238 228 223 222 196 192 205 247 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 25.0 22.9 22.9 20.1 21.3 23.8 23.2 24.0 23.0 20.8 15.8 13.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 106 108 95 96 84 87 100 97 101 95 86 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 91 95 85 87 77 79 89 86 90 85 79 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.8 -53.1 -53.8 -54.5 -55.0 -55.2 -56.0 -55.7 -54.6 -53.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 0.9 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 4 3 4 1 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 52 51 53 51 48 59 74 77 62 45 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 8 10 10 12 17 20 28 25 13 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -26 -5 31 39 73 109 130 165 191 185 137 76 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 20 11 4 38 45 60 62 59 79 60 53 41 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 -16 -2 22 -24 -51 -93 -148 -97 -184 -158 -261 -229 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -466 -305 -137 -80 50 177 411 557 724 997 1301 1514 1007 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 39.5 40.2 40.9 41.6 42.2 42.5 42.1 41.7 41.8 42.7 44.8 48.1 51.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.5 78.1 75.8 72.7 69.6 63.8 58.4 52.6 47.1 41.8 36.4 30.6 24.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 19 22 24 23 21 21 21 21 21 24 25 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 12 CX,CY: 5/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 897 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 9. 12. 15. 17. 16. 14. 13. 13. 12. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 5. 7. 9. 12. 6. -6. -19. -31. -43. -53. -66. -80. -89. -93. -93. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. 4. 7. 17. 13. -3. -12. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -5. -4. -2. -0. -2. -1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 8. 8. 2. 5. -9. -33. -52. -63. -69. -72. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 20. LAT, LON: 39.5 80.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/18/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.27 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 20.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 129.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.79 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.35 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.50 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.25 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 31.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.70 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.2% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/18/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/18/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 20 26 28 29 34 36 37 37 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 20 19 21 22 27 29 30 30 24 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 20 17 16 17 22 24 25 25 19 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT