* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/17/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 37 37 36 31 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 37 37 36 31 27 24 21 18 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 29 28 27 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 40 37 34 33 35 33 34 28 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 0 1 -3 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 263 275 272 265 265 263 266 270 272 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.4 25.3 25.2 25.2 24.7 24.2 24.5 24.7 24.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 110 108 106 106 101 97 100 102 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 97 93 91 90 87 83 86 88 90 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -56.0 -56.5 -56.9 -56.8 -56.7 -56.7 -56.3 -55.5 -54.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.3 0.3 0.1 -0.3 0.0 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 23 24 27 28 28 29 26 25 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 8 7 8 8 8 8 7 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -95 -98 -71 -48 -36 -35 -25 -11 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 1 1 -8 0 -27 -21 -20 -38 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -7 -8 -3 -4 -11 -6 -4 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1837 1719 1601 1512 1422 1338 1362 1434 1507 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.1 33.9 33.7 33.3 32.8 31.6 30.6 29.7 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 31.1 29.8 28.5 27.7 26.9 26.6 27.4 28.7 30.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 11 9 8 7 6 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 95/ 18 CX,CY: 18/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 3.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. -1. -8. -14. -20. -26. -30. -34. -40. -44. -46. -46. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 16. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 12. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 6. 1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. -20. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.1 31.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/17/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 35.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 338.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.30 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.57 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 90.9 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.7% 0.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/17/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 33 35 37 37 36 31 27 24 21 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 31 33 35 35 34 29 25 22 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 30 30 29 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 22 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT