* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/16/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 33 34 36 35 31 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 33 34 36 35 31 26 23 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 27 26 25 25 25 24 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 37 38 37 36 35 34 36 32 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 0 -2 -2 0 0 -1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 244 261 269 268 269 265 267 269 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 26.1 25.5 25.3 25.1 25.1 24.8 24.7 24.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 116 110 108 105 104 102 101 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 101 95 93 90 88 86 87 87 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.7 -55.8 -56.2 -56.7 -56.8 -57.2 -57.5 -56.6 -55.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 29 27 26 27 29 32 30 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -80 -88 -88 -77 -50 -47 -41 -26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -8 4 6 1 -21 -10 -19 -17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -9 -7 -4 -6 -13 -6 -3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2029 2068 1934 1818 1704 1525 1450 1468 1479 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.5 34.7 34.9 34.8 34.7 33.8 32.7 31.6 30.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.2 33.5 31.8 30.4 29.1 27.5 27.3 28.1 28.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 11 9 6 6 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 16 CX,CY: 15/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 695 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 1.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 12. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. -1. -9. -16. -22. -29. -34. -39. -45. -50. -52. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 1. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -26. -26. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 34.5 35.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 36.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 329.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.58 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.34 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.8 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 33 34 36 35 31 26 23 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 30 32 33 35 34 30 25 22 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 28 29 31 30 26 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 21 23 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT