* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 35 36 37 38 36 33 28 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 35 36 37 38 36 33 28 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 31 30 29 29 29 28 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 38 38 38 37 33 33 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -3 -4 -2 -2 0 0 -1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 232 239 245 261 272 271 271 265 255 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.7 26.0 25.6 25.4 25.1 24.7 24.3 24.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 113 115 111 109 105 101 98 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 100 99 100 97 94 90 86 84 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.6 -55.7 -55.8 -56.1 -56.6 -57.0 -57.2 -56.8 -56.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 30 30 27 26 26 31 32 30 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -59 -78 -84 -89 -60 -51 -32 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -6 -6 7 10 -11 -25 -9 -20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -2 -6 -6 -3 -7 -9 -2 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1980 2057 2063 1927 1793 1571 1431 1364 1301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.8 34.1 34.4 34.4 34.4 33.9 32.8 31.6 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.0 35.3 33.6 32.0 30.4 28.0 27.0 26.9 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 14 13 12 8 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 15 CX,CY: 13/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 3. 4. 2. -3. -11. -17. -23. -29. -34. -38. -44. -48. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 12. 10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -7. -10. -14. -17. -19. -23. -25. -28. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 33.8 37.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 386.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.31 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -3.0 0.62 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 93.4 104.5 to 0.0 999.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/16/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 35 35 36 37 38 36 33 28 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 35 34 34 35 36 37 35 32 27 24 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 34 32 29 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT