* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/16/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 27 26 26 26 26 26 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 29 31 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 29 34 34 33 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 15 15 17 14 11 12 17 40 55 70 76 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -4 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 3 3 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 280 289 278 283 289 284 283 259 261 249 249 235 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.4 29.2 25.2 22.4 18.2 22.4 20.9 16.7 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 161 163 160 158 155 109 92 78 93 87 75 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 131 133 134 131 128 127 95 83 73 84 79 71 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.3 -50.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -52.4 -53.4 -54.2 -54.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 8 7 4 7 4 5 0 0 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 57 55 55 59 58 53 52 51 55 58 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 19 17 15 12 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 14 17 0 -29 -28 -12 38 67 85 91 143 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 14 0 -3 11 11 8 6 24 39 65 42 76 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 15 14 19 14 10 11 0 8 18 -6 -27 -39 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -131 -208 -294 -392 -490 -536 -329 -2 113 250 389 319 703 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 34.3 34.8 35.7 36.5 38.2 39.5 40.6 41.6 42.4 43.4 44.6 45.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 81.0 81.8 82.5 82.8 83.2 82.1 78.8 74.0 68.6 62.6 56.5 50.3 44.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 9 9 11 17 20 22 23 23 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 5 4 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 14. 16. 17. 16. 14. 13. 13. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 6. 1. -6. -18. -30. -44. -53. -59. -62. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -17. -22. -24. -26. -29. -32. -35. -34. -33. -32. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -10. -20. -33. -48. -55. -59. -61. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 33.7 81.0 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/16/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.48 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 4.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.03 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 170.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.75 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.66 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.9 2.9 to -3.0 0.16 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.5% 9.0% 6.2% 4.7% 4.1% 6.5% 5.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 1.2% 0.7% 0.5% 0.1% 0.7% 0.3% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 3.4% 2.3% 1.7% 1.4% 2.4% 1.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/16/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/16/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 29 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 27 28 29 29 31 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 25 26 27 27 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 20 21 22 22 24 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT