* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/15/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 60 58 57 57 58 53 41 24 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 60 58 57 57 58 53 37 32 29 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 59 58 56 55 53 49 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 36 32 27 20 21 23 19 27 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 1 1 1 4 12 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 229 239 246 242 215 206 197 191 196 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.5 24.2 23.4 22.1 20.4 19.0 16.6 14.6 12.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 102 97 90 84 81 77 74 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 89 86 81 77 75 73 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.4 -55.4 -55.9 -56.2 -56.3 -55.9 -54.6 -52.8 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 -0.8 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 41 41 45 48 48 52 50 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 30 28 28 29 32 28 22 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 49 6 -8 -23 -11 63 110 143 197 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 32 33 23 66 48 48 48 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 2 -1 5 0 32 -17 9 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1766 1804 1856 1659 1470 1045 480 -45 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 38.4 39.7 40.9 42.0 43.1 45.7 49.2 53.7 58.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 34.7 33.1 31.4 29.3 27.2 21.7 15.4 8.9 2.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 19 22 26 29 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 18 CX,CY: 8/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -5. -8. -11. -15. -20. -23. -25. -28. -31. -34. -35. -37. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -16. -20. -24. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 11. 11. 11. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. -4. -13. -24. -25. -27. -28. -28. -27. -27. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -2. -3. -3. -2. -7. -19. -36. -39. -43. -46. -49. -52. -53. -53. -53. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 38.4 34.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 27.5 28.5 to 2.0 0.04 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.67 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 437.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.47 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.73 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.32 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 89.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.14 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 11.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/15/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 60 58 57 57 58 53 37 32 29 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 57 56 56 57 52 36 31 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 56 51 35 30 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 51 46 30 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT