* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 46 52 60 67 73 80 86 91 92 94 97 V (KT) LAND 30 30 31 32 34 39 46 52 60 67 73 80 86 91 92 94 97 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 29 29 30 33 37 42 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 14 14 11 5 9 6 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 1 4 7 0 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 34 49 68 92 55 23 4 359 328 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.8 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.5 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 149 150 152 152 161 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 144 145 145 148 147 156 151 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 59 58 58 58 57 58 61 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 10 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 36 40 46 62 59 41 40 16 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 35 26 24 22 30 11 3 12 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 2 3 0 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 287 258 280 329 320 231 173 259 335 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 70.3 71.4 72.5 73.5 74.5 76.6 78.6 80.6 82.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 61 63 77 86 46 79 60 105 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 517 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 58.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 28. 32. 36. 39. 41. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 11. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 4. 9. 16. 22. 30. 37. 43. 50. 56. 61. 62. 64. 67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.7 70.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.66 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.43 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.0 36.6 to 2.8 999.00 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 164.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.76 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 2.9 to -3.0 999.00 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.27 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/18 06 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 31 32 34 39 46 52 60 67 73 80 86 91 92 94 97 18HR AGO 30 29 30 31 33 38 45 51 59 66 72 79 85 90 91 93 96 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 41 47 55 62 68 75 81 86 87 89 92 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 34 40 48 55 61 68 74 79 80 82 85 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT