* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 59 59 58 58 58 54 46 27 24 20 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 59 59 58 58 58 54 46 35 32 28 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 60 59 58 56 52 48 44 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 40 32 26 18 23 16 28 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 2 4 0 3 7 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 228 232 238 244 239 198 199 189 193 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.0 25.3 24.4 23.0 22.6 19.9 18.3 16.2 14.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 116 110 103 95 93 83 79 75 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 102 96 91 84 83 76 74 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.3 -55.5 -55.3 -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -55.4 -54.2 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 -0.1 -0.8 -0.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 4 3 3 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 44 44 48 50 52 47 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 27 29 31 31 32 33 30 27 19 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 37 -1 -16 -31 -4 82 86 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 63 25 25 26 21 76 48 55 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 3 2 8 6 2 17 -44 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1840 1836 1846 1799 1606 1190 799 215 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 36.9 38.2 39.5 40.7 41.8 44.2 47.0 50.3 53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 35.2 33.9 32.6 30.6 28.6 23.8 18.2 12.0 5.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 18 19 20 23 25 25 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 19 CX,CY: 6/ 18 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 689 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -23. -26. -29. -32. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -8. -13. -14. -17. -20. -24. -28. -31. -32. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 0. -4. -16. -17. -18. -19. -20. -19. -19. -19. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -6. -14. -33. -36. -40. -43. -47. -51. -53. -54. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 36.9 35.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 403.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.51 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 31.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.86 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.29 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.46 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.2% 9.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 1.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/15/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 59 59 58 58 58 54 46 35 32 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 59 58 58 58 54 46 35 32 28 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 55 55 55 51 43 32 29 25 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 50 46 38 27 24 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT