* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/15/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 47 46 46 45 43 40 38 35 34 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 50 42 36 32 30 28 27 28 29 29 31 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 42 35 32 29 27 27 28 29 29 33 33 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 19 14 12 13 11 14 12 15 18 38 64 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -6 -1 5 0 1 -1 -3 -2 2 1 1 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 253 280 299 291 292 281 270 272 275 254 245 231 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.5 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.3 25.7 23.3 20.1 19.8 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 152 154 158 160 162 163 159 157 112 96 83 83 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 122 123 127 129 131 132 129 127 95 85 77 77 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -50.1 -50.2 -50.3 -50.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.7 -52.0 -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -50.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.7 1.0 0.6 0.5 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 5 8 8 5 7 4 7 4 5 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 60 58 56 56 57 58 57 55 53 46 38 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 26 25 22 17 14 12 9 9 9 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 9 16 17 10 11 -27 -32 -37 7 63 88 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 12 7 0 7 12 7 1 12 5 25 26 20 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 -2 0 10 19 21 9 12 -7 1 -14 -135 -160 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -33 -63 -91 -133 -179 -319 -481 -534 -415 -138 8 124 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.9 34.1 35.1 36.6 38.3 39.6 40.5 41.5 42.8 44.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.7 80.2 80.7 81.3 82.4 82.8 82.0 79.8 75.9 70.7 64.3 58.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 10 13 18 22 24 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 28 20 7 4 5 5 4 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. -1. -9. -20. -24. -26. -27. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 0. -0. -2. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -11. -17. -24. -29. -32. -33. -35. -35. -34. -33. -31. -31. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -19. -27. -37. -40. -42. -43. -42. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 33.7 79.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 2.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.51 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 12.8 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 260.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.66 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.43 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.29 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 11.7% 7.7% 6.2% 5.8% 8.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 2.1% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 1.0% 0.5% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.6% 4.6% 3.0% 2.4% 2.0% 3.1% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 42 36 32 30 28 27 28 29 29 31 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 43 39 37 35 34 35 36 36 38 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 42 40 38 37 38 39 39 41 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 36 35 36 37 37 39 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT