* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * JOYCE AL102018 09/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 51 51 50 47 43 40 37 34 31 29 28 26 25 24 22 V (KT) LAND 45 49 51 51 50 47 43 40 37 34 31 29 28 26 25 24 22 V (KT) LGEM 45 49 51 51 50 46 43 41 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 33 36 38 40 39 32 35 34 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -4 0 -1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 213 217 219 221 225 238 260 272 282 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.3 26.9 27.0 25.9 25.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 128 129 130 128 124 126 114 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 105 108 109 112 110 107 109 99 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.4 -55.7 -55.8 -55.9 -56.0 -56.3 -56.6 -56.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.4 0.0 0.0 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 39 41 42 40 38 34 32 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 10 7 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 137 120 87 39 -6 -65 -98 -90 -91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 22 5 15 0 -13 -8 -1 -49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 0 0 -3 -10 -9 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1870 1872 1877 1873 1875 1925 2072 1840 1560 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 31.5 31.8 32.1 32.7 33.2 34.3 35.0 35.3 35.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 43.8 42.9 42.1 41.0 39.9 37.2 33.9 30.4 26.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 9 11 12 13 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 4 6 6 7 7 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 5 CX,CY: 5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -14. -19. -24. -29. -33. -37. -42. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -3. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -19. -20. -20. -19. -19. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 5. 2. -2. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -17. -19. -20. -21. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 31.5 43.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.36 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 361.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.55 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 63.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.32 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.66 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 84.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.19 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.1% 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.7% 2.4% 1.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL102018 JOYCE 09/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 49 51 51 50 47 43 40 37 34 31 29 28 26 25 24 22 18HR AGO 45 44 46 46 45 42 38 35 32 29 26 24 23 21 20 19 17 12HR AGO 45 42 41 41 40 37 33 30 27 24 21 19 18 16 15 DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 31 27 24 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT