* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 39 40 41 44 49 55 61 65 70 75 80 85 87 89 92 V (KT) LAND 35 37 39 40 41 44 49 55 61 65 70 75 80 85 87 89 92 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 39 40 42 45 49 56 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 13 10 10 7 12 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 2 4 2 7 1 2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 28 45 64 80 9 16 345 344 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.3 29.5 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 153 153 150 157 160 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 150 148 149 149 145 150 153 146 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.3 -53.3 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -53.6 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 11 12 12 11 11 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 53 55 56 57 57 59 62 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 10 9 8 6 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 40 40 39 46 56 42 40 24 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 13 24 22 13 10 16 21 1 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 3 3 1 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 301 279 234 245 272 222 123 140 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.6 15.6 16.0 16.6 17.2 17.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 68.9 70.0 71.2 72.2 73.3 75.3 77.3 79.1 81.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 64 66 69 70 83 64 62 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 599 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 29. 33. 36. 37. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 9. 14. 20. 26. 30. 35. 40. 45. 50. 52. 54. 57. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.4 68.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.64 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 70.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.44 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 212.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.22 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.0 104.5 to 0.0 0.94 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 31% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.7% 24.8% 13.4% 8.5% 7.8% 12.5% 20.7% 30.5% Logistic: 5.4% 13.9% 11.4% 6.0% 1.8% 5.4% 6.4% 17.5% Bayesian: 0.5% 2.8% 4.9% 0.1% 0.2% 2.7% 4.6% 11.3% Consensus: 4.5% 13.8% 9.9% 4.9% 3.2% 6.9% 10.5% 19.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 37 39 40 41 44 49 55 61 65 70 75 80 85 87 89 92 18HR AGO 35 34 36 37 38 41 46 52 58 62 67 72 77 82 84 86 89 12HR AGO 35 32 31 32 33 36 41 47 53 57 62 67 72 77 79 81 84 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 26 29 34 40 46 50 55 60 65 70 72 74 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT