* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/15/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 51 50 51 50 46 45 43 41 40 40 43 41 38 36 35 V (KT) LAND 55 45 38 33 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 34 37 34 31 29 28 V (KT) LGEM 55 45 38 33 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 36 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 19 16 15 14 12 14 12 17 26 37 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 1 -5 0 2 -2 1 -3 -1 -3 2 3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 250 266 283 289 283 292 268 266 274 284 242 234 227 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.7 29.7 29.8 29.8 29.9 29.8 29.8 26.4 25.7 23.1 16.7 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 161 161 163 163 166 165 165 118 113 96 75 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 129 129 129 131 131 134 132 133 99 97 85 71 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -49.8 -50.0 -50.3 -50.4 -50.7 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 -51.8 -52.2 -52.3 -51.7 -50.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 6 5 9 8 4 7 3 6 3 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 59 60 61 59 58 55 53 57 56 57 59 51 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 30 28 27 25 25 22 17 15 12 11 12 15 22 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 3 0 13 8 12 15 -4 -33 -41 1 61 158 206 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -1 -2 1 10 12 10 8 -2 29 -10 63 52 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 7 -1 0 7 12 14 9 13 7 -4 -55 -58 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -13 -46 -83 -127 -164 -281 -431 -532 -466 -273 -130 114 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.9 33.9 33.9 34.1 34.2 34.9 36.2 37.7 39.2 40.7 42.1 43.3 44.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.8 79.3 79.8 80.3 80.8 81.9 82.5 82.4 80.7 77.5 72.9 67.3 61.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 12 16 20 21 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 33 26 7 5 5 5 5 5 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 3. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -3. -10. -13. -15. -15. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. -0. -2. -4. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -16. -21. -27. -31. -31. -27. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -5. -4. -5. -9. -10. -12. -14. -15. -15. -12. -14. -17. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.9 78.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.49 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 15.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.09 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 265.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.65 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.6% 11.4% 7.4% 6.1% 5.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.7% 1.9% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.5% 4.4% 2.9% 2.4% 2.1% 3.0% 0.3% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/15/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 45 38 33 30 28 27 27 28 29 30 34 37 34 31 29 28 18HR AGO 55 54 47 42 39 37 36 36 37 38 39 43 46 43 40 38 37 12HR AGO 55 52 51 46 43 41 40 40 41 42 43 47 50 47 44 42 41 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 40 39 39 40 41 42 46 49 46 43 41 40 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT