* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 44 47 52 56 62 65 69 72 77 83 89 91 95 96 V (KT) LAND 35 38 41 44 47 52 56 62 65 69 72 77 83 89 91 95 96 V (KT) LGEM 35 37 40 42 45 50 56 63 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 7 7 9 10 4 11 7 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 3 2 4 6 4 4 0 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 25 37 39 41 62 32 19 351 353 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 28.9 29.4 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 154 152 153 153 150 159 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 155 151 147 148 149 144 153 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 13 12 12 12 11 12 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 49 50 52 54 57 56 60 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 39 41 45 45 49 29 28 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 0 12 23 10 21 4 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 4 0 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 301 306 286 242 245 248 167 109 229 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.8 16.3 17.0 17.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 67.6 68.8 70.0 71.1 72.1 74.2 76.2 78.3 80.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 64 66 69 69 94 49 71 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 18.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 8. 14. 18. 22. 26. 30. 33. 37. 38. 39. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 17. 21. 27. 30. 34. 37. 42. 48. 54. 57. 60. 61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.3 67.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.72 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 65.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.40 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.80 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 239.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.68 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.79 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.2 104.5 to 0.0 0.85 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 34% is 6.3 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.4% 30.3% 19.3% 11.7% 8.5% 19.3% 23.6% 33.6% Logistic: 18.6% 28.4% 23.7% 21.4% 11.0% 26.4% 25.2% 38.6% Bayesian: 5.0% 47.8% 41.9% 3.4% 2.5% 30.6% 12.3% 10.7% Consensus: 11.3% 35.5% 28.3% 12.2% 7.3% 25.5% 20.4% 27.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 38 41 44 47 52 56 62 65 69 72 77 83 89 91 95 96 18HR AGO 35 34 37 40 43 48 52 58 61 65 68 73 79 85 87 91 92 12HR AGO 35 32 31 34 37 42 46 52 55 59 62 67 73 79 81 85 86 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 28 33 37 43 46 50 53 58 64 70 72 76 77 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT