* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/14/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 61 62 63 63 65 63 56 54 51 48 45 42 40 39 38 V (KT) LAND 60 61 61 62 63 63 65 63 56 54 51 48 45 42 40 39 38 V (KT) LGEM 60 62 63 63 62 58 54 51 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 44 49 43 33 31 13 13 9 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -5 0 3 0 5 0 3 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 221 227 229 230 234 251 206 174 177 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.9 26.9 26.3 25.5 25.0 22.9 20.0 18.6 17.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 119 112 108 94 82 78 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 112 111 104 97 94 84 75 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.8 -55.5 -55.4 -55.1 -55.5 -56.0 -55.5 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 52 53 50 48 51 53 44 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 27 30 31 32 33 30 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 96 85 78 51 13 -21 -17 71 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 49 48 49 44 22 80 25 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 18 15 8 3 14 -4 14 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2018 1928 1850 1849 1863 1642 1240 897 536 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 34.9 36.5 37.8 39.1 41.3 43.5 45.8 48.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.1 36.3 35.5 34.1 32.7 28.9 24.4 19.7 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 17 18 19 20 20 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 19 CX,CY: 2/ 19 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 706 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 56.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. -25. -27. -28. -29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 5. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 3. -4. -6. -9. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 33.3 37.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 39.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 345.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.57 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 43.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.15 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.84 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 81.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.22 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.1% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/14/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 61 61 62 63 63 65 63 56 54 51 48 45 42 40 39 38 18HR AGO 60 59 59 60 61 61 63 61 54 52 49 46 43 40 38 37 36 12HR AGO 60 57 56 57 58 58 60 58 51 49 46 43 40 37 35 34 33 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 51 51 53 51 44 42 39 36 33 30 28 27 26 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT