* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 31 33 38 44 52 56 62 67 74 81 88 90 93 95 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 31 33 38 44 52 56 62 67 74 81 88 90 93 95 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 29 29 32 35 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 13 8 7 9 9 10 7 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 2 2 4 3 4 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 348 17 46 34 36 78 9 32 346 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.3 29.3 29.1 29.0 29.1 28.9 29.2 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 161 157 157 154 152 153 150 155 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 161 156 155 151 148 149 144 149 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -52.9 -53.2 -52.9 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 13 13 12 12 12 11 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 48 50 50 52 55 57 59 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 10 9 8 7 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 44 40 42 53 43 43 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 5 3 17 23 27 -1 1 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 0 0 0 0 3 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 335 341 343 317 279 316 267 178 207 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.0 15.1 15.1 15.2 15.6 16.1 16.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 66.5 67.7 68.9 70.0 71.2 73.3 75.2 77.1 79.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 55 53 60 66 68 78 75 57 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 635 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 82.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 0. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 28. 32. 36. 40. 41. 43. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 11. 11. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -18. -18. -18. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 22. 26. 32. 37. 44. 51. 58. 60. 63. 65. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 66.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.69 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 60.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.37 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 209.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 27.0 to 140.8 0.85 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.4 2.9 to -3.0 0.25 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.58 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.0% 9.9% 7.0% 6.5% 9.6% 13.0% 22.1% Logistic: 4.6% 8.9% 6.2% 5.9% 2.9% 13.0% 15.3% 22.4% Bayesian: 0.9% 2.9% 3.3% 0.1% 0.0% 2.2% 3.1% 2.4% Consensus: 3.6% 9.3% 6.5% 4.3% 3.1% 8.3% 10.4% 15.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/14/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 30 30 31 33 38 44 52 56 62 67 74 81 88 90 93 95 18HR AGO 30 29 29 30 32 37 43 51 55 61 66 73 80 87 89 92 94 12HR AGO 30 27 26 27 29 34 40 48 52 58 63 70 77 84 86 89 91 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 27 33 41 45 51 56 63 70 77 79 82 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT