* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/14/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 55 54 55 57 59 61 63 62 57 55 52 48 42 39 36 35 V (KT) LAND 55 55 54 55 57 59 61 63 62 57 36 31 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 55 53 50 50 51 50 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 46 44 46 41 38 23 8 10 18 32 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 0 -1 3 1 0 4 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 226 225 229 232 231 250 266 210 172 188 194 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 26.5 25.7 25.2 23.4 20.6 19.6 17.8 16.0 14.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 121 113 109 97 84 81 77 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 118 114 107 99 95 86 76 74 72 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.2 -54.9 -55.5 -55.8 -55.9 -56.7 -56.6 -56.4 -53.9 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 -0.4 -0.1 -0.7 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 3 2 1 0 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 53 52 53 51 50 55 54 47 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 24 23 26 28 32 32 32 32 31 35 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 93 80 76 56 24 -19 -32 -5 57 103 -107 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 53 50 43 54 30 24 48 39 56 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 16 8 19 11 4 7 21 23 2 -26 -57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2169 2052 1948 1910 1886 1708 1319 961 641 158 -16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.0 33.8 35.5 37.0 38.4 40.7 42.8 45.0 47.5 50.5 53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 36.5 35.8 35.2 34.1 33.0 29.5 25.3 20.8 16.0 11.2 6.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 18 17 17 17 18 19 20 21 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 5 4 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 5/ 22 CX,CY: 2/ 22 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 682 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -12. -15. -17. -19. -22. -23. -25. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -16. -20. -23. -27. -30. -31. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 12. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 2. -0. -3. -7. -13. -16. -19. -20. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.0 36.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 302.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.22 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.75 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 46.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 76.7 104.5 to 0.0 0.27 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/14/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/14/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 55 54 55 57 59 61 63 62 57 36 31 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 53 54 56 58 60 62 61 56 35 30 29 29 29 29 29 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 54 56 58 60 59 54 33 28 27 27 27 27 27 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 47 49 51 53 52 47 26 21 20 20 20 20 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT