* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/13/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 50 46 46 43 41 42 38 39 44 41 36 27 23 19 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 55 50 46 46 43 41 42 38 39 44 41 36 28 29 30 30 N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 47 43 41 38 37 36 37 40 43 44 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 38 46 45 41 46 48 37 29 17 8 17 25 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 2 2 5 2 4 3 0 1 0 -2 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 210 215 218 223 231 237 258 223 185 187 195 224 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 26.2 26.3 27.0 26.9 26.9 25.3 24.4 22.8 21.5 19.1 16.7 14.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 113 118 119 127 126 126 110 103 93 88 80 75 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 103 109 109 115 113 110 95 90 82 79 74 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -54.4 -54.9 -55.7 -55.8 -56.5 -56.4 -56.2 -56.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.5 1.0 0.5 1.1 0.2 0.4 -0.3 0.9 0.8 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 6 4 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 41 43 44 44 48 50 48 44 45 50 54 57 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 23 26 23 25 29 28 30 33 31 29 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 71 78 79 67 33 -6 -34 -27 -8 19 7 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 45 57 42 58 49 57 9 -11 21 30 47 42 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 18 22 17 21 13 3 6 0 0 -18 -25 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2090 2099 2126 2152 2167 2021 1932 1594 1237 878 603 259 -33 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.4 27.1 28.8 30.5 32.2 35.4 37.7 39.5 41.2 43.0 45.8 49.4 53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 37.1 36.9 36.7 36.3 35.9 34.2 31.3 27.7 23.9 19.9 15.6 11.2 6.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 17 17 17 16 17 17 19 22 23 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 1 4 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 12 CX,CY: 0/ 12 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 690 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -14. -17. -18. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -17. -22. -24. -24. -24. -25. -27. -31. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 0. -2. -2. 2. 1. 3. 6. 2. -1. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -5. -9. -9. -12. -14. -13. -17. -16. -11. -14. -19. -28. -32. -36. -40. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.4 37.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 43.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.01 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.70 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 383.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.53 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 54.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.24 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.72 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.37 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 73.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.30 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/13/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/13/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 50 46 46 43 41 42 38 39 44 41 36 28 29 30 30 DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 50 50 47 45 46 42 43 48 45 40 32 33 34 34 DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 48 46 47 43 44 49 46 41 33 34 35 35 DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 42 40 41 37 38 43 40 35 27 28 29 29 DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT