* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/13/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 93 92 92 91 88 81 78 73 64 58 57 56 53 55 55 54 V (KT) LAND 95 93 92 92 91 59 40 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 95 91 90 89 87 58 39 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 11 15 14 12 10 15 12 17 12 15 17 23 30 48 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 1 0 1 -1 3 -2 3 1 1 0 4 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 182 189 191 218 230 231 257 252 276 271 278 267 264 270 282 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.0 29.3 29.1 29.1 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.1 30.1 29.8 29.5 26.7 25.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 151 156 152 151 161 161 161 167 169 170 165 161 122 107 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 136 127 129 124 122 128 128 129 134 136 138 134 130 101 89 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -50.4 -50.0 -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 10 9 7 9 7 9 6 8 5 8 5 5 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 53 55 56 58 59 59 58 56 59 59 54 47 45 34 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 35 36 35 34 30 28 25 19 15 13 14 14 21 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -14 -19 -22 -11 -16 3 0 22 19 27 -12 -6 -4 29 8 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 37 55 43 11 14 0 29 8 15 -6 24 3 9 -30 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 8 9 1 5 -3 5 3 24 23 16 17 -1 13 -54 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 324 223 128 88 28 -58 -62 -109 -156 -234 -367 -534 -575 -472 -367 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 32.5 33.1 33.7 34.0 34.2 34.4 34.2 33.9 33.9 34.2 35.2 36.9 38.6 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.3 75.1 76.0 76.7 77.4 78.4 79.2 80.2 81.2 82.4 83.2 83.3 82.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 5 5 7 9 11 12 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 35 47 30 22 30 13 5 5 5 5 5 5 1 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 15 CX,CY: -10/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. -0. -3. -8. -13. -17. -21. -23. -24. -26. -31. -35. -36. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 1. 1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -3. -3. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -7. -10. -16. -25. -33. -36. -35. -34. -24. -23. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -14. -17. -22. -31. -37. -38. -39. -42. -40. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 32.5 74.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.42 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.3 28.5 to 2.0 0.61 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.21 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 703.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.20 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.05 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.7% 8.4% 6.6% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 4.8% 2.9% 1.8% 1.4% 1.9% 1.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 4.5% 3.2% 2.4% 0.5% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/13/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 13( 28) 12( 36) 0( 36) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 93 92 92 91 59 40 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 18HR AGO 95 94 93 93 92 60 41 32 29 28 28 28 29 30 31 31 31 12HR AGO 95 92 91 91 90 58 39 30 27 26 26 26 27 28 29 29 29 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 84 52 33 24 21 20 20 20 21 22 23 23 23 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 44 25 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 95 93 84 78 75 59 40 31 28 27 27 27 28 29 30 30 30 IN 12HR 95 93 92 83 77 73 54 45 42 41 41 41 42 43 44 44 44