* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/13/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 39 38 37 38 39 43 44 46 49 54 60 65 68 71 74 V (KT) LAND 45 42 39 38 37 38 39 43 44 46 49 54 60 65 68 71 74 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 40 38 36 34 34 35 38 40 44 50 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 25 27 24 19 17 14 6 15 9 15 10 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 5 4 1 3 8 2 7 3 -2 0 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 296 307 317 313 343 356 359 23 358 3 349 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.7 29.9 29.7 29.4 29.2 28.9 28.6 29.1 28.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 160 165 169 165 159 156 150 145 153 150 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 157 160 165 169 165 158 152 145 139 147 143 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.6 -53.4 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.5 -0.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 10 11 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 49 47 49 50 56 60 63 64 67 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 16 15 15 14 14 11 11 9 8 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 16 5 10 16 23 26 40 51 44 45 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -5 -5 17 22 -12 8 -32 5 20 27 14 25 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -11 -7 -2 -6 -9 -4 -2 0 0 -2 -3 -2 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 647 566 528 516 384 245 245 192 226 197 124 169 335 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.2 16.6 17.1 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.2 58.8 60.3 61.7 63.2 66.0 68.7 71.1 73.4 75.4 77.4 79.4 81.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 14 14 14 13 12 12 10 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 31 43 49 46 42 71 64 67 86 53 60 63 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 765 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 8. 13. 16. 20. 22. 25. 28. 31. 31. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -24. -24. -23. -23. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -2. -1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 23. 26. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.3 57.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.23 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.26 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 308.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.61 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.78 0.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.24 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 17.9 104.5 to 0.0 0.83 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.9% 13.3% 8.1% 6.2% 5.7% 8.5% 10.4% 12.7% Logistic: 0.5% 0.7% 0.3% 0.3% 0.1% 0.9% 0.9% 2.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 4.7% 2.8% 2.2% 1.9% 3.1% 3.8% 5.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/13/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 42 39 38 37 38 39 43 44 46 49 54 60 65 68 71 74 18HR AGO 45 44 41 40 39 40 41 45 46 48 51 56 62 67 70 73 76 12HR AGO 45 42 41 40 39 40 41 45 46 48 51 56 62 67 70 73 76 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 34 35 36 40 41 43 46 51 57 62 65 68 71 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT