* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/12/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 47 45 44 43 46 51 54 62 66 71 75 80 83 86 89 V (KT) LAND 50 49 47 45 44 43 46 51 54 62 66 71 75 80 83 86 89 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 47 45 43 41 41 43 46 53 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 26 25 28 26 20 16 10 8 10 6 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 1 4 5 6 1 6 3 7 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 310 291 294 307 306 300 325 330 51 59 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.7 30.0 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 153 157 160 166 171 160 156 152 148 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 153 157 160 166 171 159 153 148 142 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.8 -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -0.1 0.2 0.6 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 50 48 48 49 49 53 55 57 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 16 16 16 15 15 15 14 17 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 12 3 9 16 29 39 45 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -1 5 6 14 4 -10 0 40 19 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -7 -6 -5 -6 -1 -2 0 0 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 761 664 593 548 523 281 245 228 222 248 210 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.9 15.9 15.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.7 57.2 58.6 60.1 61.6 64.6 67.5 70.2 72.5 74.6 76.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 23 32 42 49 46 59 65 60 78 78 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 12. 15. 18. 20. 23. 26. 28. 28. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -4. 1. 4. 12. 16. 21. 25. 30. 33. 36. 39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 15.3 55.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 28.5 to 2.0 0.13 0.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.72 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 350.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.56 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 106.6 27.0 to 140.8 0.70 0.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.27 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.17 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.8 104.5 to 0.0 0.81 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 14.7% 8.9% 6.9% 6.3% 8.9% 10.7% 11.8% Logistic: 0.7% 0.8% 0.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.9% 0.6% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 5.3% 3.2% 2.4% 2.1% 3.3% 3.7% 4.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 47 45 44 43 46 51 54 62 66 71 75 80 83 86 89 18HR AGO 50 49 47 45 44 43 46 51 54 62 66 71 75 80 83 86 89 12HR AGO 50 47 46 44 43 42 45 50 53 61 65 70 74 79 82 85 88 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 39 38 41 46 49 57 61 66 70 75 78 81 84 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT