* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 76 71 64 58 49 39 31 32 28 28 29 31 24 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 76 71 64 58 49 39 31 32 28 28 29 31 24 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 75 69 64 60 54 49 44 42 41 40 41 43 43 39 36 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 20 17 22 31 38 42 46 49 50 43 32 23 26 38 37 46 59 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 16 9 6 5 3 3 3 -5 -3 2 3 3 11 18 29 9 SHEAR DIR 243 221 222 218 217 214 227 233 233 246 253 250 236 218 219 250 235 SST (C) 25.0 24.9 24.9 24.8 25.0 26.1 27.0 26.9 25.5 24.0 22.3 20.3 18.2 15.9 13.8 12.9 10.6 POT. INT. (KT) 105 105 105 104 106 117 127 126 112 101 91 83 78 73 71 70 68 ADJ. POT. INT. 98 97 97 96 98 107 115 111 98 89 82 76 72 69 68 67 66 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -53.6 -54.3 -54.6 -55.6 -55.8 -54.1 -51.3 -50.0 -51.2 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 54 48 45 46 43 41 46 52 56 54 55 54 50 49 64 65 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 30 27 26 27 24 23 26 25 27 28 28 25 19 7 4 850 MB ENV VOR 62 60 54 45 33 76 87 105 95 51 14 44 104 87 62 161 182 200 MB DIV 83 128 83 28 15 49 38 56 38 16 35 54 54 47 71 83 48 700-850 TADV 16 10 20 20 15 17 27 44 16 23 9 7 3 -38 -13 68 140 LAND (KM) 2015 2045 2081 2091 2111 2133 2173 2052 1961 1786 1401 1025 732 296 68 186 475 LAT (DEG N) 19.8 20.8 21.9 23.2 24.4 27.3 30.8 34.3 37.3 39.8 42.2 44.5 47.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 36.3 36.7 37.1 37.3 37.4 37.2 36.4 35.1 33.0 30.1 26.2 21.7 17.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 13 16 18 17 17 18 20 20 20 20 21 22 22 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 11 CX,CY: -4/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. -29. -34. -39. -44. -48. -51. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -7. -11. -18. -23. -26. -30. -31. -30. -29. -27. -28. -30. -34. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -9. -13. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -15. -22. -35. -38. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -16. -22. -31. -41. -49. -48. -52. -52. -51. -49. -56. -68. -87. -97. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 19.8 36.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.11 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 621.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.28 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 17.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.45 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 61.1 104.5 to 0.0 0.42 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.8% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL082018 HELENE 09/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 4( 11) 0( 11) 0( 11) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 76 71 64 58 49 39 31 32 28 28 29 31 24 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 74 67 61 52 42 34 35 31 31 32 34 27 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 69 63 54 44 36 37 33 33 34 36 29 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 64 55 45 37 38 34 34 35 37 30 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT