* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/12/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 117 117 117 118 111 104 96 91 83 75 67 65 63 64 70 V (KT) LAND 115 115 117 117 117 118 111 104 96 65 41 31 28 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 115 115 113 113 113 112 104 96 89 62 40 31 28 27 27 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 4 7 9 9 10 15 22 25 23 18 17 20 20 25 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 -2 -7 5 -1 4 -1 -3 -6 -3 -3 -2 -3 7 3 SHEAR DIR 175 180 196 181 172 221 245 268 271 271 281 275 267 254 253 254 280 SST (C) 30.1 29.6 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.7 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.8 30.0 30.1 30.0 29.8 29.7 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 173 163 152 154 155 162 155 155 157 159 164 168 169 167 164 162 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 145 133 132 131 132 123 123 125 127 133 136 135 133 130 127 117 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -50.0 -49.5 -49.2 -49.2 -49.2 -49.8 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -49.9 -50.2 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.5 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 10 10 7 9 6 8 4 8 5 9 5 8 0 700-500 MB RH 50 49 49 51 53 54 58 57 58 57 55 56 60 54 49 35 24 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 34 35 34 35 39 37 36 35 34 30 24 20 19 19 21 28 850 MB ENV VOR 12 -3 -7 -9 -16 -11 -8 8 14 20 32 30 25 37 73 95 -15 200 MB DIV 19 26 12 0 46 42 33 7 19 10 10 11 -11 22 9 -12 -31 700-850 TADV 5 4 -1 5 7 0 2 2 7 18 13 18 8 3 -4 8 -22 LAND (KM) 808 661 516 398 284 147 60 25 20 -27 -97 -185 -300 -413 -507 -560 -585 LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.3 31.1 31.8 32.5 33.4 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.6 33.7 34.0 34.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 70.7 71.9 73.1 74.1 75.1 76.5 77.4 77.9 78.5 79.3 80.4 81.8 82.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 9 6 3 2 3 4 5 6 5 5 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 31 30 40 37 44 24 22 26 29 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. -0. -5. -13. -24. -32. -39. -43. -46. -48. -51. -53. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. 0. 3. 1. 0. -2. -5. -11. -20. -26. -27. -26. -23. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 2. 2. 3. -4. -11. -19. -24. -32. -40. -48. -50. -52. -51. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 29.4 70.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 28.5 to 2.0 0.80 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.68 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 908.8 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 24.0 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.39 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.23 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 2.4% 3.6% 1.9% 0.8% 0.6% 0.8% 1.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 2.8% 1.5% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 1.7% 0.9% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 32( 53) 32( 68) 32( 78) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 5 1( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 115 117 117 117 118 111 104 96 65 41 31 28 27 27 28 28 18HR AGO 115 114 116 116 116 117 110 103 95 64 40 30 27 26 26 27 27 12HR AGO 115 112 111 111 111 112 105 98 90 59 35 25 22 21 21 22 22 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 105 106 99 92 84 53 29 19 16 15 15 16 16 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 97 90 83 75 44 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 115 106 100 97 96 89 82 74 43 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 115 117 108 102 98 91 84 76 45 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS