* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/12/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 116 119 120 120 120 112 105 99 91 86 82 73 69 64 61 55 V (KT) LAND 115 116 119 120 120 120 112 105 63 41 31 28 27 27 28 28 29 V (KT) LGEM 115 116 118 118 116 115 109 98 61 40 31 28 27 27 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 8 5 7 8 12 14 24 22 25 15 24 20 22 19 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -3 -1 -1 -2 5 2 -1 -3 -8 -5 -6 -5 -1 1 4 SHEAR DIR 150 169 158 177 173 198 242 255 281 266 273 272 285 277 269 258 254 SST (C) 29.9 30.1 29.6 29.0 29.2 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.7 30.0 30.0 30.0 29.6 29.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 169 173 163 153 155 161 156 155 161 161 161 168 168 168 161 161 128 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 156 145 134 133 133 126 124 127 129 129 135 135 134 127 127 101 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -49.9 -49.7 -49.3 -49.3 -49.2 -49.8 -50.0 -50.1 -50.6 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 12 11 11 8 10 7 8 5 7 4 8 4 7 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 50 51 55 56 58 58 56 50 50 49 52 52 56 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 34 35 35 34 38 36 36 35 33 31 28 22 19 17 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 8 11 -3 -9 -14 -22 -18 -2 4 28 23 51 15 22 20 73 56 200 MB DIV 0 12 27 11 4 59 18 34 1 23 8 0 -4 4 17 31 -5 700-850 TADV 2 6 1 0 3 3 3 1 7 8 14 4 17 16 7 0 -26 LAND (KM) 952 798 645 508 374 190 75 3 -26 -73 -159 -246 -375 -521 -637 -652 -637 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.5 30.3 31.1 31.9 33.1 33.7 34.0 34.1 34.2 34.3 34.6 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 69.5 70.8 72.1 73.3 74.4 76.1 77.2 77.9 78.6 79.4 80.5 81.8 83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 14 13 13 11 7 4 3 3 4 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 47 30 31 40 51 27 26 30 7 5 5 5 5 4 5 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 541 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -12. -22. -30. -37. -42. -44. -47. -50. -52. -54. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -0. -4. -8. -13. -22. -25. -27. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 5. 5. 5. -3. -10. -16. -24. -29. -33. -42. -46. -51. -54. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 28.6 69.5 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.24 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 888.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.01 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 29.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.02 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.0 2.9 to -3.0 0.32 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 9.4% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.0% 2.7% 1.4% 0.8% 0.6% 1.3% 2.6% 0.1% Bayesian: 6.4% 1.8% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.7% 4.6% 3.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 0.9% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 33( 54) 33( 69) 33( 79) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 18 3( 20) 4( 24) 2( 25) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 116 119 120 120 120 112 105 63 41 31 28 27 27 28 28 29 18HR AGO 115 114 117 118 118 118 110 103 61 39 29 26 25 25 26 26 27 12HR AGO 115 112 111 112 112 112 104 97 55 33 23 20 19 19 20 20 21 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 105 105 97 90 48 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 115 106 100 97 96 96 88 81 39 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 115 116 107 101 98 99 91 84 42 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 115 116 119 110 104 100 92 85 43 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS