* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 51 49 48 43 41 43 45 50 51 57 59 62 64 66 69 V (KT) LAND 55 53 51 49 48 43 41 43 45 50 51 57 59 62 64 66 69 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 47 42 38 36 35 37 39 43 47 52 58 65 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 21 25 26 25 28 22 18 8 14 10 14 11 13 15 15 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 9 11 10 6 6 3 1 5 7 5 6 2 0 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 280 298 318 315 297 305 314 330 350 10 52 30 60 32 63 62 98 SST (C) 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.8 29.2 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 135 141 144 150 157 160 160 155 151 151 147 142 147 150 152 155 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 140 144 150 157 160 160 155 150 147 143 137 141 144 145 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.6 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.4 -0.2 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.3 -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 13 12 14 12 12 10 10 9 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 49 50 50 52 52 52 51 53 51 56 59 63 66 65 68 64 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 19 19 19 18 15 13 13 10 10 7 6 4 3 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 40 30 24 26 28 12 27 35 39 38 49 35 20 -7 -10 -18 -9 200 MB DIV 17 14 9 17 -9 1 -4 11 -18 0 10 8 16 9 12 5 12 700-850 TADV -5 -3 -4 -6 -8 -7 -12 -8 -3 -1 0 -3 -3 0 -1 -4 0 LAND (KM) 1007 943 812 690 584 469 396 289 312 253 294 267 242 315 202 142 164 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.4 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 51.8 53.2 54.6 56.1 57.5 60.6 63.6 66.7 69.5 72.0 74.3 76.3 78.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 14 14 15 15 14 14 13 11 11 10 10 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 15 16 18 24 33 51 44 58 56 69 72 41 76 57 44 50 43 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 19. 20. 21. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -5. -3. -1. -0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -11. -16. -18. -23. -25. -28. -29. -29. -29. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -14. -12. -10. -5. -4. 2. 4. 7. 9. 11. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 14.5 51.8 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.24 0.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 21.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.40 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 375.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.54 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.55 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 2.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.13 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.18 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 104.5 to 0.0 0.99 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 3% is 0.6 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 4% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 3.1% 9.6% 6.3% 5.1% 4.4% 6.8% 5.7% 6.2% Logistic: 0.5% 0.4% 0.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 1.3% 3.4% 2.2% 1.8% 1.5% 2.4% 2.1% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 53 51 49 48 43 41 43 45 50 51 57 59 62 64 66 69 18HR AGO 55 54 52 50 49 44 42 44 46 51 52 58 60 63 65 67 70 12HR AGO 55 52 51 49 48 43 41 43 45 50 51 57 59 62 64 66 69 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 44 39 37 39 41 46 47 53 55 58 60 62 65 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT