* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/12/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 124 127 129 130 127 127 116 109 104 101 101 98 88 77 69 60 V (KT) LAND 120 124 127 129 130 127 127 116 72 43 32 28 27 27 28 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 120 124 128 131 129 125 117 104 66 40 31 28 27 27 28 29 29 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 1 3 6 5 5 10 14 14 24 26 26 23 26 25 25 16 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -4 -4 -4 -3 -6 3 1 3 -2 -6 -8 -9 -9 -6 -3 9 SHEAR DIR 73 166 178 180 219 197 240 255 272 275 261 271 259 269 258 272 214 SST (C) 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.5 28.7 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 166 168 166 162 156 162 160 156 159 159 160 159 162 162 158 146 133 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 152 149 144 136 136 130 124 125 126 128 127 129 128 124 115 104 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.3 -52.1 -51.2 -50.9 -51.0 -50.0 -49.4 -49.0 -49.0 -48.9 -49.2 -48.8 -49.2 -50.0 -50.9 -50.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.7 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.1 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 12 12 12 13 13 10 10 7 9 5 8 3 7 2 7 2 1 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 49 50 55 57 60 61 58 50 48 46 48 48 56 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 30 33 33 34 36 35 39 36 35 36 36 38 36 31 26 21 17 850 MB ENV VOR 0 7 16 1 -9 -8 -13 -3 9 23 43 53 47 27 22 70 96 200 MB DIV -14 -3 5 27 8 34 32 36 17 13 11 11 5 24 47 16 20 700-850 TADV -2 -2 3 5 0 5 2 3 4 -2 1 1 10 19 17 8 -8 LAND (KM) 944 946 785 632 481 252 117 28 -50 -114 -178 -293 -425 -551 -632 -622 -608 LAT (DEG N) 28.0 28.8 29.6 30.5 31.3 32.7 33.7 34.2 34.6 34.9 35.2 35.6 36.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 67.9 69.3 70.8 72.1 73.4 75.4 76.6 77.4 78.1 78.7 79.7 81.1 82.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 15 14 12 9 6 4 3 4 5 6 6 5 6 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 47 37 37 27 34 41 35 24 31 6 4 4 4 4 4 3 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 15 CX,CY: -12/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -13. -24. -33. -41. -46. -50. -53. -57. -60. -62. -63. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 8. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 2. -6. -13. -18. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 9. 10. 7. 7. -4. -11. -16. -19. -19. -22. -32. -43. -51. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 28.0 67.9 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.92 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 934.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -3.0 0.37 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.16 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 8.0% 11.9% 7.6% 4.8% 3.8% 4.7% 5.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 13.1% 14.5% 5.7% 0.7% 0.1% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.8% 8.8% 4.4% 1.8% 1.3% 1.7% 1.9% 0.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/12/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 41( 60) 43( 77) 41( 87) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 9 5( 14) 2( 15) 1( 16) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 124 127 129 130 127 127 116 72 43 32 28 27 27 28 29 29 18HR AGO 120 119 122 124 125 122 122 111 67 38 27 23 22 22 23 24 24 12HR AGO 120 117 116 118 119 116 116 105 61 32 21 17 16 16 17 18 18 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 111 108 108 97 53 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 98 98 87 43 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 124 115 109 106 103 103 92 48 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 124 127 118 112 108 108 97 53 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS