* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 46 44 41 39 37 35 32 29 27 26 26 25 26 27 26 25 V (KT) LAND 50 46 44 41 40 37 36 33 30 27 26 26 26 27 27 26 25 V (KT) LGEM 50 46 43 41 40 37 35 33 31 30 29 29 30 33 36 39 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 21 27 30 32 33 38 37 31 21 18 22 19 32 44 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 8 7 6 6 4 -3 1 -3 -2 -4 -1 0 -4 -11 -6 SHEAR DIR 250 264 265 265 271 275 280 276 280 275 291 304 324 312 286 273 272 SST (C) 26.8 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.0 27.9 27.7 27.8 28.2 27.8 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.7 28.4 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 132 136 136 138 135 144 142 143 147 143 150 151 151 153 152 149 153 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 -53.3 -53.7 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -55.1 -55.5 -55.3 -55.5 -55.5 -55.6 -55.2 -55.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 26 27 30 31 32 35 38 39 44 49 57 58 61 61 59 54 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 9 8 8 8 8 7 850 MB ENV VOR 34 37 45 47 45 53 53 60 57 52 49 44 42 48 57 59 54 200 MB DIV 2 0 -22 -36 -29 -7 -3 -7 -7 4 -5 5 -7 13 4 -11 -11 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -4 -3 -3 -7 -3 -2 1 1 4 1 0 -4 -3 -5 0 LAND (KM) 370 264 164 53 25 192 288 463 661 877 1102 1331 1545 1750 1965 2203 2429 LAT (DEG N) 21.6 21.4 21.2 20.9 20.6 19.9 19.5 19.3 19.5 20.1 20.6 21.2 21.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 152.0 153.2 154.3 155.5 156.7 159.2 161.5 163.8 166.1 168.5 170.8 173.1 175.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 12 11 11 9 10 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 7 9 7 5 3 31 28 35 27 19 25 30 37 29 32 32 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 669 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 29.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -13. -20. -25. -28. -28. -29. -29. -30. -35. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -21. -23. -24. -24. -25. -24. -23. -24. -25. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.6 152.0 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.4 27.0 to 147.4 0.49 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -17.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.08 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 546.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.30 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 103.4 0.03 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 58.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.06 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.13 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 7.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##