* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/11/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 86 81 74 69 58 44 33 24 21 22 25 27 28 23 17 N/A V (KT) LAND 90 86 81 74 69 58 44 33 24 21 22 25 27 28 23 17 N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 85 79 73 67 59 51 45 41 38 37 38 40 42 43 42 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 15 20 19 24 31 35 40 41 36 32 12 19 40 42 46 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 11 10 12 8 10 10 8 8 2 0 3 5 2 14 26 SHEAR DIR 248 232 239 221 212 205 199 209 214 228 231 250 246 225 209 198 198 SST (C) 25.2 25.0 24.8 25.0 25.2 25.5 25.4 25.8 26.7 27.3 26.8 24.7 22.8 19.7 17.8 15.8 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 107 105 103 105 106 109 109 114 123 131 124 106 95 83 77 74 72 ADJ. POT. INT. 100 98 96 97 98 100 99 104 112 117 109 93 85 76 72 70 68 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -53.7 -54.5 -56.0 -55.8 -54.7 -53.6 -52.6 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.6 1.2 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 5 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 69 64 61 57 51 47 42 42 42 46 51 49 48 46 43 52 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 35 34 32 31 29 26 25 22 21 21 23 23 23 21 19 12 850 MB ENV VOR 46 49 54 59 51 39 18 40 40 60 37 -2 -58 15 82 103 69 200 MB DIV 60 56 54 66 66 25 17 53 28 55 33 5 10 45 59 46 57 700-850 TADV 5 8 6 12 15 15 11 14 7 26 13 12 28 29 -66 -86 -74 LAND (KM) 1842 1923 2007 2059 2108 2154 2169 2172 2174 2132 2007 1888 1496 1084 684 196 -86 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.5 18.2 19.0 19.8 21.6 23.7 26.3 29.4 33.0 36.1 38.7 41.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 34.6 35.3 36.0 36.6 37.2 37.8 38.0 37.8 37.0 35.6 33.6 31.0 27.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 9 10 11 15 17 18 17 19 22 24 22 22 21 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -12. -18. -25. -30. -34. -37. -41. -45. -50. -54. -58. -59. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -5. -7. -11. -13. -14. -16. -17. -17. -16. -13. -11. -12. -15. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -11. -15. -20. -23. -24. -23. -22. -22. -25. -26. -34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -16. -21. -32. -46. -57. -66. -69. -68. -65. -63. -62. -67. -73. -86. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 16.8 34.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/11/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 543.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.36 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.8 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.30 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 60.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.42 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/11/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 8( 19) 3( 21) 0( 21) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 86 81 74 69 58 44 33 24 21 22 25 27 28 23 17 DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 84 77 72 61 47 36 27 24 25 28 30 31 26 20 DIS 12HR AGO 90 87 86 79 74 63 49 38 29 26 27 30 32 33 28 22 DIS 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 75 64 50 39 30 27 28 31 33 34 29 23 DIS NOW 90 81 75 72 71 60 46 35 26 23 24 27 29 30 25 19 DIS IN 6HR 90 86 77 71 68 61 47 36 27 24 25 28 30 31 26 20 DIS IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT