* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/11/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 27 24 21 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 25 23 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 2 2 6 10 22 32 40 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 4 3 1 3 9 7 14 8 12 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 36 33 41 10 19 259 221 226 244 237 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.4 24.0 23.9 23.2 23.2 23.3 23.5 23.8 23.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 115 112 106 102 100 93 91 92 94 97 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 2 1 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 38 35 32 30 31 29 33 35 39 35 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 11 11 10 8 7 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 59 63 53 45 39 32 23 22 19 0 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 -11 -16 -15 -9 6 5 -1 17 9 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 1 0 -2 -2 0 1 -1 -1 -9 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1066 1136 1209 1276 1346 1461 1560 1594 1628 1666 1712 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.4 22.5 22.7 22.8 23.1 23.2 23.3 23.4 23.4 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.6 124.6 125.5 126.4 127.2 128.6 129.7 130.4 131.1 131.7 132.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 484 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 1. -6. -14. -15. -15. -16. -17. -20. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -14. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -6. -7. -10. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -12. -11. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -10. -9. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -11. -17. -21. -25. -31. -38. -46. -49. -52. -55. -58. -63. -67. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 22.2 123.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 27.0 to 147.4 0.41 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 18.9 to 1.4 0.80 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.10 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 320.6 816.2 to -81.4 0.55 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 37.7 62.3 to 0.0 0.39 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.2 to -2.3 0.79 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/11/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##