* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/11/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 94 89 85 80 69 57 45 36 31 28 28 27 29 30 28 22 V (KT) LAND 95 94 89 85 80 69 57 45 36 31 28 28 27 29 30 28 22 V (KT) LGEM 95 93 88 81 75 65 57 51 46 42 39 37 36 35 35 36 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 6 10 12 9 12 15 26 32 42 44 48 54 54 38 19 19 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 5 13 16 6 7 -2 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -1 3 7 SHEAR DIR 304 251 247 242 245 218 227 218 219 209 218 226 233 236 266 267 280 SST (C) 25.9 25.6 25.3 25.1 24.9 25.4 25.6 25.7 25.9 26.8 27.3 27.3 25.8 24.4 22.6 20.3 18.7 POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 107 106 104 108 110 112 114 124 130 130 114 103 93 83 78 ADJ. POT. INT. 109 104 101 99 96 100 101 102 103 111 116 115 99 90 82 75 72 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.9 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.4 -52.8 -53.6 -53.4 -53.8 -54.4 -53.6 -53.4 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 1.3 1.2 1.2 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 6 4 3 3 1 700-500 MB RH 71 72 69 65 61 53 45 38 38 35 36 36 31 34 37 35 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 34 34 34 31 29 27 26 25 23 24 23 24 24 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 42 42 41 41 45 53 39 28 40 53 64 73 52 24 -2 20 -49 200 MB DIV 51 70 82 50 34 77 12 14 18 35 37 38 7 -7 8 25 15 700-850 TADV -2 6 6 4 2 11 11 10 8 -4 -8 -3 -10 -10 -1 1 15 LAND (KM) 1686 1790 1894 1985 2076 2178 2229 2270 2286 2281 2176 2029 2010 1746 1383 1029 775 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.3 17.9 19.3 21.2 23.4 25.9 28.6 31.5 34.5 37.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 33.2 34.2 35.1 35.9 36.7 37.8 38.5 39.0 39.0 38.4 37.2 35.2 32.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 9 11 12 13 15 16 17 16 17 19 19 18 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 8 4 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -13. -19. -27. -34. -40. -43. -45. -48. -52. -56. -59. -61. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -15. -17. -15. -14. -14. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -9. -12. -16. -19. -22. -22. -23. -22. -21. -22. -24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -6. -10. -15. -26. -38. -50. -59. -64. -67. -66. -68. -66. -65. -67. -73. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 15.7 33.2 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/11/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.70 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 434.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.48 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.7 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.31 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.40 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.6% 1.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/11/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 17 11( 26) 7( 31) 3( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 94 89 85 80 69 57 45 36 31 28 28 27 29 30 28 22 18HR AGO 95 94 89 85 80 69 57 45 36 31 28 28 27 29 30 28 22 12HR AGO 95 92 91 87 82 71 59 47 38 33 30 30 29 31 32 30 24 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 80 69 57 45 36 31 28 28 27 29 30 28 22 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 65 53 41 32 27 24 24 23 25 26 24 18 IN 6HR 95 94 85 79 76 70 58 46 37 32 29 29 28 30 31 29 23 IN 12HR 95 94 89 80 74 70 58 46 37 32 29 29 28 30 31 29 23