* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 56 53 50 48 47 43 40 39 41 41 45 43 43 43 41 41 V (KT) LAND 60 56 53 50 48 47 43 40 39 41 41 45 43 43 43 41 41 V (KT) LGEM 60 56 53 51 50 48 44 40 38 38 38 40 43 47 50 55 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 16 18 19 28 35 32 33 35 21 16 15 20 18 25 31 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 7 6 8 6 6 2 -4 -5 -6 -5 -2 -7 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 281 242 248 258 264 258 264 272 275 269 256 282 323 304 293 275 268 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.9 27.3 27.1 27.4 27.5 28.0 27.9 27.5 28.3 28.0 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 126 133 137 135 139 140 145 144 140 149 145 150 151 153 150 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -54.1 -54.6 -55.2 -55.3 -55.9 -55.8 -55.7 -55.8 -56.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.2 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 27 29 29 29 30 33 34 40 39 44 45 45 50 51 52 51 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 16 15 14 15 12 11 11 13 14 16 15 14 14 13 13 850 MB ENV VOR 19 21 28 40 43 58 52 67 59 70 69 74 77 62 60 63 57 200 MB DIV 6 -7 -8 -8 0 -20 -1 -20 -5 6 -7 -9 5 -11 13 7 11 700-850 TADV 2 1 1 0 0 1 -6 -6 0 2 5 0 -4 -8 -6 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 637 539 444 342 244 49 54 149 330 581 840 1102 1377 1665 1943 2232 2509 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 21.8 21.7 21.6 21.4 21.1 20.8 20.5 20.5 20.6 20.9 21.4 22.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 149.2 150.2 151.2 152.3 153.4 155.7 158.1 160.6 163.1 165.7 168.3 170.9 173.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 7 9 4 19 16 47 20 21 27 30 24 27 30 24 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -9. -14. -19. -22. -22. -22. -22. -23. -24. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -4. -7. -7. -4. -4. -1. -2. -3. -2. -3. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -10. -12. -13. -17. -20. -21. -19. -19. -15. -17. -17. -17. -19. -19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.9 149.2 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 70.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.36 1.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.8 18.9 to 1.4 0.29 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.4 -33.0 to 159.5 0.15 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 3.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 690.8 816.2 to -81.4 0.14 -0.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 3.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 56.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.09 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 16.1% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.4% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##