* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/11/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 124 128 129 131 132 132 127 122 123 117 114 116 113 110 100 89 V (KT) LAND 120 124 128 129 131 132 132 127 122 75 42 32 28 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 120 126 130 135 137 138 131 123 114 70 40 31 28 28 28 28 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 2 6 3 2 10 13 19 25 22 29 23 19 14 20 17 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 -4 -5 -3 -7 -2 0 -1 -6 -5 -3 -7 -5 -3 SHEAR DIR 132 71 71 123 164 212 221 207 221 232 257 262 252 247 243 249 226 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.2 29.6 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 164 166 162 164 156 163 152 157 155 153 151 148 146 143 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 145 150 152 149 148 137 139 125 126 122 119 118 115 113 110 107 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.2 -52.1 -51.6 -50.7 -50.6 -49.7 -49.3 -48.8 -48.8 -48.9 -49.3 -48.5 -48.8 -49.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.3 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 10 10 6 8 4 8 3 6 1 6 700-500 MB RH 49 49 50 49 48 50 49 53 57 59 55 51 43 37 36 40 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 26 30 29 31 34 36 36 37 42 43 43 47 47 48 44 38 850 MB ENV VOR 16 11 17 14 9 21 0 7 11 18 37 48 51 62 45 72 83 200 MB DIV -11 -11 10 14 -24 14 13 39 48 49 14 24 15 14 -6 11 14 700-850 TADV -1 -2 1 2 -3 6 1 7 5 -1 -3 -4 0 2 9 7 1 LAND (KM) 905 890 902 918 933 813 502 238 55 -88 -149 -201 -245 -292 -342 -355 -373 LAT (DEG N) 25.6 26.1 26.5 27.2 27.8 29.5 31.2 32.8 34.1 35.1 35.8 36.3 36.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 61.7 63.1 64.5 66.0 67.5 70.5 73.2 75.5 77.1 78.1 78.7 79.1 79.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 15 15 15 13 11 8 6 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 31 34 44 38 41 40 33 41 22 7 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 1. 2. 1. -3. -11. -21. -29. -37. -43. -47. -51. -56. -60. -63. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 8. 10. 16. 17. 17. 20. 18. 18. 12. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 7. 2. 3. -3. -6. -4. -7. -10. -20. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 25.6 61.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.4 28.5 to 2.0 0.95 2.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.75 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 895.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.00 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 27.5 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.51 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.4% 10.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 11.2% 20.4% 16.1% 7.6% 4.5% 8.5% 9.3% 1.2% Bayesian: 13.3% 41.6% 18.6% 2.4% 0.3% 1.4% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 10.7% 25.5% 15.1% 3.3% 1.6% 3.3% 3.1% 0.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/11/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 43( 62) 45( 79) 45( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 12 17( 27) 15( 38) 10( 44) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 124 128 129 131 132 132 127 122 75 42 32 28 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 120 119 123 124 126 127 127 122 117 70 37 27 23 23 23 23 23 12HR AGO 120 117 116 117 119 120 120 115 110 63 30 20 16 16 16 16 16 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 112 113 113 108 103 56 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 102 102 97 92 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 124 115 109 106 106 106 101 96 49 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 124 128 119 113 109 109 104 99 52 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS