* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 71 70 68 63 63 64 67 73 78 83 84 86 87 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 70 71 70 68 63 63 64 67 73 78 83 84 86 87 V (KT) LGEM 65 66 67 69 70 73 72 67 61 57 56 59 67 76 82 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 7 5 8 10 8 18 23 26 23 20 7 4 12 12 17 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 6 3 7 12 8 11 3 3 -1 6 5 5 3 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 355 6 333 331 324 292 301 300 294 294 344 27 49 88 68 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.6 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.1 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 127 128 129 131 139 147 151 153 156 155 153 150 145 142 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 124 125 126 129 138 146 150 152 154 154 150 146 140 136 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 -53.0 -52.5 -52.9 -52.5 -53.3 -53.3 -53.8 -53.4 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -0.8 -0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 10 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 50 47 49 47 51 52 52 51 53 51 53 53 57 57 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 20 21 20 19 20 21 18 17 16 16 16 15 16 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 86 86 72 66 54 41 26 17 14 30 34 45 48 54 57 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 30 9 21 19 2 17 1 46 21 3 -2 23 35 47 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -4 -1 -1 -2 -3 -3 -1 0 1 -7 -3 1 0 0 -2 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1375 1288 1211 1148 1091 1013 779 572 470 446 312 313 256 277 277 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 44.4 45.8 47.1 48.4 49.8 52.5 55.1 57.8 60.5 63.0 65.7 68.4 70.7 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 13 12 11 10 10 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 8 10 16 24 16 21 31 47 38 67 51 51 73 61 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -8. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -14. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. -2. -2. -1. 2. 8. 13. 18. 19. 22. 22. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.4 44.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 3.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 28.5 to 2.0 0.79 2.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 13.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.82 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 480.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.29 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.43 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.24 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 17.8% 11.7% 8.9% 8.5% 10.0% 9.5% 6.4% Logistic: 5.1% 7.2% 6.1% 4.1% 1.7% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.9% 2.7% 5.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 4.9% 9.2% 7.7% 4.4% 3.5% 4.3% 3.4% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 1( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 69 70 71 70 68 63 63 64 67 73 78 83 84 86 87 18HR AGO 65 64 66 67 68 67 65 60 60 61 64 70 75 80 81 83 84 12HR AGO 65 62 61 62 63 62 60 55 55 56 59 65 70 75 76 78 79 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 56 55 53 48 48 49 52 58 63 68 69 71 72 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT