* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/10/18 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 127 128 131 130 129 129 128 124 118 114 108 114 114 112 106 92 V (KT) LAND 120 127 128 131 130 129 129 128 124 92 50 34 29 28 27 27 28 V (KT) LGEM 120 128 133 135 138 137 134 127 119 87 47 33 29 27 27 27 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 6 5 4 3 8 12 16 23 22 24 26 20 17 11 17 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -7 -2 -3 -6 -4 -5 -8 1 -2 -4 -9 -2 -6 0 0 SHEAR DIR 119 111 106 110 105 197 189 204 206 236 240 266 257 274 230 231 220 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.4 29.1 29.6 29.1 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 160 164 166 161 155 163 153 159 158 155 155 154 153 150 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 140 147 151 153 147 139 141 128 129 125 121 120 119 118 116 113 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.1 -53.0 -52.5 -51.9 -51.4 -50.9 -50.9 -50.2 -49.7 -49.2 -49.1 -48.9 -49.1 -48.8 -49.0 -49.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.4 2.0 1.7 1.5 2.1 1.7 1.7 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.2 1.1 1.5 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 7 9 5 8 5 8 4 6 700-500 MB RH 50 49 48 51 49 49 50 52 56 59 55 51 45 41 40 41 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 26 31 29 31 34 36 38 39 41 41 46 47 48 47 40 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 14 23 18 14 5 3 3 18 41 52 78 73 81 69 76 200 MB DIV -1 -3 -12 5 15 -6 27 31 41 36 37 19 23 16 10 14 14 700-850 TADV -6 -3 0 3 0 0 1 1 8 3 0 -3 -2 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 930 895 882 904 905 957 630 336 125 -51 -154 -222 -270 -296 -308 -320 -342 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 25.6 26.0 26.6 27.1 28.7 30.4 32.1 33.4 34.5 35.2 35.7 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 60.6 61.9 63.2 64.7 66.2 69.3 72.2 74.8 76.8 78.2 79.1 79.6 80.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 14 14 15 16 15 12 9 6 4 3 2 2 2 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 37 29 35 43 38 35 24 44 29 28 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -11. -20. -28. -36. -42. -46. -50. -55. -58. -61. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 5. 6. 9. 11. 11. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 5. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 0. -1. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 2. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 15. 13. 19. 19. 18. 15. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 8. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 4. -2. -6. -12. -6. -6. -8. -14. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 25.2 60.6 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.96 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.88 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.23 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 872.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.02 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.00 0.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.48 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.8 -30.8 to 188.1 0.14 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.6 104.5 to 0.0 0.96 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.5% 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 31.9% 34.4% 31.8% 16.9% 6.5% 11.7% 16.7% 1.9% Bayesian: 35.1% 19.6% 21.4% 4.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 28.8% 24.0% 17.7% 7.0% 2.4% 4.0% 5.6% 0.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/2018 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 43( 62) 43( 78) 44( 88) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 74 71( 92) 73( 98) 63( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 127 128 131 130 129 129 128 124 92 50 34 29 28 27 27 28 18HR AGO 120 119 120 123 122 121 121 120 116 84 42 26 21 20 19 19 20 12HR AGO 120 117 116 119 118 117 117 116 112 80 38 22 17 16 15 15 16 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 109 108 108 107 103 71 29 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 120 111 105 102 101 100 100 99 95 63 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 120 127 118 112 109 107 107 106 102 70 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 12HR 120 127 128 119 113 109 109 108 104 72 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS