* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/10/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 32 28 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 32 28 25 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 33 30 27 25 21 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 10 6 6 3 1 7 11 20 36 46 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 4 4 3 4 8 4 10 3 11 9 14 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 58 59 72 71 59 79 331 202 215 228 243 231 225 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.6 26.3 25.9 25.6 25.6 24.4 23.1 21.9 21.6 21.8 22.2 22.7 22.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 129 126 122 119 118 106 92 79 75 77 81 86 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -53.1 -53.2 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 45 42 39 34 31 27 29 32 36 37 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 62 61 61 59 60 41 39 35 42 31 36 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -18 -13 -12 -26 -24 -7 -5 10 -4 13 43 -4 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 3 3 2 -1 4 -2 1 1 1 -1 -3 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 949 979 997 1027 1064 1174 1295 1401 1497 1531 1587 1645 1706 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.0 22.5 22.9 23.4 23.6 23.8 23.8 23.8 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.3 121.1 121.8 122.6 123.4 125.1 126.7 128.1 129.2 130.1 131.0 131.9 132.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 4 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. -1. -8. -15. -15. -16. -19. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -12. -13. -15. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -17. -17. -16. -15. -13. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -10. -13. -18. -23. -27. -31. -35. -39. -46. -56. -58. -61. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 20.5 120.3 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.7 27.0 to 147.4 0.50 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.5 18.9 to 1.4 0.54 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -18.6 -33.0 to 159.5 0.07 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.20 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 312.0 816.2 to -81.4 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.4 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.9 62.3 to 0.0 0.76 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.7 2.2 to -2.3 0.88 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 5.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/10/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##