* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/10/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 71 73 72 70 67 62 63 61 62 66 69 72 75 77 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 71 73 72 70 67 62 63 61 62 66 69 72 75 77 V (KT) LGEM 65 67 70 72 73 75 75 71 63 55 49 45 47 50 57 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 5 7 12 25 28 32 27 19 14 10 13 7 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 5 6 6 12 5 9 2 2 1 8 8 5 6 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 294 336 353 311 304 292 294 306 300 300 318 11 16 39 43 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.0 27.0 27.1 27.5 28.4 28.7 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.4 28.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 127 129 126 126 127 131 144 148 153 155 157 154 150 144 144 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 123 126 123 123 125 129 142 147 153 155 157 154 150 143 143 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.5 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -53.2 -52.8 -53.3 -53.7 -53.6 -53.4 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 -0.3 -0.6 -0.7 -0.3 0.1 0.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 13 12 12 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 48 47 48 48 48 53 54 53 49 52 51 55 57 62 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 18 19 20 19 20 20 17 18 14 12 11 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 86 78 77 68 51 36 19 12 8 34 35 46 58 56 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 13 11 17 30 24 16 17 -14 7 13 0 5 5 38 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -7 -5 0 -1 -3 -7 -7 -3 -6 -12 -6 0 -4 -6 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1547 1465 1382 1296 1224 1102 971 746 559 518 294 294 234 283 245 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.9 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.5 15.5 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 42.1 43.4 44.8 46.2 47.6 50.5 53.2 55.8 58.7 61.8 65.0 68.2 71.3 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 14 14 14 13 13 13 14 15 15 15 15 14 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 9 12 9 8 9 19 18 23 38 42 66 53 55 71 51 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 627 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -1. 1. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -7. -7. -12. -16. -18. -20. -21. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 2. -3. -2. -4. -3. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.6 42.1 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.85 3.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.4 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 481.2 895.4 to -71.5 0.43 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.28 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -3.0 0.58 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.21 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 2.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 22.2% 16.8% 15.7% 10.8% 11.8% 11.4% 7.3% Logistic: 7.0% 17.7% 14.2% 7.7% 3.9% 6.7% 2.4% 0.7% Bayesian: 2.1% 9.9% 6.4% 0.3% 0.2% 2.0% 1.6% 0.1% Consensus: 6.6% 16.6% 12.5% 7.9% 5.0% 6.9% 5.1% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/10/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 3( 5) 4( 9) 4( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 1( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 67 69 71 73 72 70 67 62 63 61 62 66 69 72 75 77 18HR AGO 65 64 66 68 70 69 67 64 59 60 58 59 63 66 69 72 74 12HR AGO 65 62 61 63 65 64 62 59 54 55 53 54 58 61 64 67 69 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 57 56 54 51 46 47 45 46 50 53 56 59 61 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT