* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * OLIVIA EP172018 09/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 65 65 65 64 62 59 51 44 38 36 33 30 26 27 26 28 V (KT) LAND 65 65 65 65 64 62 59 51 44 38 36 33 30 26 27 26 28 V (KT) LGEM 65 65 64 64 63 64 63 58 51 46 42 39 36 34 33 33 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 8 5 6 13 20 25 29 31 35 38 38 41 26 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 -1 0 5 9 9 6 6 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 -6 SHEAR DIR 347 295 317 287 266 257 258 256 263 263 262 259 253 251 246 246 239 SST (C) 26.2 26.1 26.2 26.3 26.2 26.8 27.1 26.8 27.7 27.6 28.0 28.4 27.9 28.4 28.2 28.2 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 126 124 125 126 125 132 135 132 142 141 145 149 144 149 148 149 153 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.8 -54.0 -54.5 -54.7 -54.8 -55.2 -55.3 -55.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 27 27 26 27 28 30 30 36 37 42 42 47 50 56 58 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 18 18 17 17 16 13 11 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 23 28 18 21 27 39 42 54 57 64 58 72 54 38 36 29 36 200 MB DIV 19 2 1 -5 -6 7 12 -11 4 -9 7 20 18 12 27 5 29 700-850 TADV 1 3 1 1 4 0 -1 0 -4 -5 -2 0 3 4 8 8 8 LAND (KM) 985 885 785 688 592 389 185 21 158 267 447 651 867 1065 1347 1685 2036 LAT (DEG N) 21.7 21.7 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.2 20.9 20.4 19.9 19.5 19.3 19.5 20.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.6 146.6 147.6 148.5 149.5 151.5 153.7 156.0 158.4 161.0 163.6 166.0 168.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 10 11 11 12 12 12 11 12 12 15 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 2 0 1 1 0 7 8 3 27 24 35 31 21 27 31 22 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 648 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -16. -19. -23. -25. -26. -26. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -9. -13. -16. -16. -15. -15. -14. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -14. -21. -27. -29. -32. -35. -39. -38. -39. -37. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 21.7 145.6 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.3 27.0 to 147.4 0.28 999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 18.9 to 1.4 0.71 999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.18 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.77 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 753.4 816.2 to -81.4 0.07 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.8 2.7 to 103.4 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 59.6 62.3 to 0.0 0.04 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.38 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 24.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 1.0% 1.7% 1.0% 0.8% 1.1% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.4% 8.6% 0.6% 0.3% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP172018 OLIVIA 09/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##