* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * FLORENCE AL062018 09/10/18 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 80 85 91 97 108 113 118 119 116 113 106 97 87 80 75 71 V (KT) LAND 75 80 85 91 97 108 113 118 119 116 113 73 42 32 28 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 75 80 85 91 98 114 126 132 123 115 108 69 40 31 28 27 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 2 3 5 4 5 8 15 20 21 26 26 30 27 21 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 1 -2 -5 -7 -5 -4 -4 -8 -5 -5 0 -5 -2 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 207 224 226 119 124 81 142 195 217 216 232 240 255 278 269 264 246 SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.5 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.2 28.8 29.2 29.1 29.4 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 139 144 151 154 159 164 157 150 155 152 156 151 150 151 150 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 121 124 129 136 141 146 150 142 132 132 125 124 119 117 117 116 116 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.2 -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -52.6 -51.6 -51.5 -50.7 -51.0 -50.2 -49.9 -49.7 -50.0 -49.9 -51.0 -51.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.3 1.4 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 12 13 10 11 7 9 5 8 3 7 700-500 MB RH 48 48 52 52 50 51 47 48 47 50 51 55 54 56 53 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 23 25 27 31 31 34 36 37 38 38 35 32 31 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 0 2 17 19 24 18 3 15 -3 6 1 0 3 10 24 42 79 200 MB DIV -3 -21 -3 -11 -23 0 -10 15 7 34 38 53 19 2 12 18 5 700-850 TADV -1 0 -5 -6 -4 0 0 1 2 5 3 3 6 0 -1 -2 0 LAND (KM) 1109 1048 994 942 900 902 930 800 489 238 39 -73 -139 -176 -200 -204 -209 LAT (DEG N) 24.5 24.7 24.9 25.2 25.5 26.5 27.8 29.5 31.1 32.6 33.8 34.6 35.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 57.3 58.2 59.2 60.4 61.6 64.5 67.6 70.7 73.6 76.0 77.6 78.4 78.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 11 13 15 15 15 14 11 7 4 3 1 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 25 30 38 37 31 41 44 38 33 42 20 20 4 4 4 4 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 15. 16. 17. 16. 10. 5. 3. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 16. 22. 33. 38. 43. 44. 41. 38. 31. 22. 12. 5. -0. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 24.5 57.3 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 7.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.1 28.5 to 2.0 0.88 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.2 0.0 to 161.7 0.20 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.81 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 538.0 895.4 to -71.5 0.37 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.3 27.0 to 140.8 0.25 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -3.0 0.45 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.2 -30.8 to 188.1 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.4 104.5 to 0.0 0.80 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.1% 20.9% 19.8% 14.3% 10.1% 14.4% 14.7% 0.0% Logistic: 10.1% 38.1% 30.4% 15.9% 11.1% 27.5% 28.9% 20.8% Bayesian: 4.9% 34.7% 10.9% 2.5% 1.0% 12.1% 3.6% 1.1% Consensus: 10.0% 31.2% 20.3% 10.9% 7.4% 18.0% 15.7% 7.3% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/18 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL062018 FLORENCE 09/10/2018 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 5 10( 15) 20( 32) 28( 51) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 2( 2) 3( 5) 5( 10) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 75 80 85 91 97 108 113 118 119 116 113 73 42 32 28 27 27 18HR AGO 75 74 79 85 91 102 107 112 113 110 107 67 36 26 22 21 21 12HR AGO 75 72 71 77 83 94 99 104 105 102 99 59 28 18 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 75 69 66 65 71 82 87 92 93 90 87 47 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR 75 80 85 76 70 66 71 76 77 74 71 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS