* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * PAUL EP182018 09/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 33 32 28 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 33 32 28 24 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 35 34 29 25 21 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 19 20 18 17 12 9 5 1 3 5 12 19 30 45 55 57 64 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 2 3 9 4 7 4 11 9 11 1 6 -2 SHEAR DIR 62 72 83 90 85 59 57 204 294 235 237 236 240 238 243 236 231 SST (C) 27.6 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.3 25.8 24.5 23.3 22.3 21.7 21.5 21.4 21.6 22.0 22.6 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 139 142 140 138 134 126 121 107 94 83 77 74 73 74 78 85 91 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.3 -53.4 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -53.2 -53.4 -53.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 61 58 58 55 54 45 40 34 33 31 32 34 36 36 33 32 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 18 17 17 14 12 10 8 6 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 72 75 78 74 56 57 63 63 44 42 40 27 23 15 5 -12 -16 200 MB DIV 43 31 28 9 -12 -12 -25 -14 0 10 6 6 25 2 0 -6 -5 700-850 TADV -3 -3 0 1 0 1 0 3 -2 3 1 2 2 1 5 10 15 LAND (KM) 988 963 945 951 965 1021 1102 1224 1350 1467 1516 1543 1563 1596 1631 1668 1714 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.3 18.9 19.5 20.1 21.1 21.8 22.4 22.9 23.4 23.9 24.3 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 117.9 118.4 118.9 119.6 120.2 121.9 123.7 125.6 127.3 128.8 130.0 131.0 131.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 6 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 10 13 12 12 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=587) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 10. 5. 1. -3. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -8. -15. -25. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -6. -10. -14. -17. -19. -19. -19. -17. -15. -14. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -16. -19. -21. -24. -27. -33. -41. -50. -61. -70. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.6 117.9 ** 2022 E. PACIFIC RI INDEX EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 27.0 to 147.4 0.64 3.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.4 18.9 to 1.4 0.08 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 -33.0 to 159.5 0.27 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.17 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 228.2 816.2 to -81.4 0.66 -2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.6 2.7 to 103.4 0.08 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 62.3 to 0.0 1.00 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.84 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 11.5% 9.0% 5.7% 0.0% 9.6% 10.4% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 3.9% 3.0% 1.9% 0.0% 3.2% 3.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP182018 PAUL 09/09/18 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##