* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/09/18 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 68 71 77 78 74 73 69 62 57 52 48 51 52 53 V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 68 71 77 78 74 73 69 62 57 52 48 51 52 53 V (KT) LGEM 55 59 63 67 71 75 75 73 66 60 53 47 42 39 39 40 42 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 9 12 12 5 5 12 19 26 31 37 40 33 23 27 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 3 0 -1 4 7 8 7 6 5 5 2 5 6 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 59 71 80 83 71 58 239 213 214 198 197 195 203 215 249 263 322 SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 26.6 25.9 26.0 25.8 25.9 26.0 26.4 27.0 27.6 27.7 27.7 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 133 132 132 130 121 113 114 112 113 114 119 126 133 133 133 130 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 132 131 131 129 117 108 107 104 105 105 109 114 118 115 113 109 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.8 -54.6 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.0 0.7 0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 7 6 7 7 7 6 700-500 MB RH 71 69 71 72 69 67 67 62 53 49 49 49 52 52 49 43 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 26 28 28 32 31 32 32 30 31 29 27 26 25 25 28 29 30 850 MB ENV VOR 68 60 56 46 42 36 29 47 55 70 73 58 18 -2 -24 -26 -70 200 MB DIV 53 56 43 29 21 40 25 25 21 55 41 31 43 33 46 28 1 700-850 TADV -1 -7 -4 -1 -3 0 3 5 7 9 15 31 30 18 6 3 0 LAND (KM) 765 907 1052 1203 1356 1643 1890 2098 2087 2129 2228 2386 2443 2134 1872 1673 1472 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.0 14.3 15.0 15.9 16.9 18.1 19.7 21.6 23.8 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 24.4 25.8 27.2 28.6 30.1 32.8 35.1 37.0 38.6 40.0 41.0 41.8 42.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 14 14 14 14 13 11 10 10 11 11 13 14 14 11 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 5 9 10 3 0 0 0 0 0 5 4 10 8 9 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 532 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 4. 6. 6. 4. 1. -2. -4. -7. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 2. -1. -4. -7. -9. -9. -6. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 22. 23. 19. 18. 14. 7. 2. -3. -7. -4. -3. -2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.2 24.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/09/18 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 28.5 to 2.0 0.67 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.6 0.0 to 161.7 0.05 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.62 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 211.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.71 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.1 27.0 to 140.8 0.42 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -3.0 0.44 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -30.8 to 188.1 0.33 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 19.4% 11.8% 8.3% 7.5% 11.5% 12.8% 0.0% Logistic: 4.6% 13.4% 6.0% 2.8% 2.6% 5.7% 5.0% 0.9% Bayesian: 4.2% 28.5% 6.6% 1.3% 0.9% 7.1% 0.7% 0.1% Consensus: 5.3% 20.4% 8.1% 4.2% 3.7% 8.1% 6.1% 0.3% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/09/2018 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 6( 10) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 63 68 71 77 78 74 73 69 62 57 52 48 51 52 53 18HR AGO 55 54 58 63 66 72 73 69 68 64 57 52 47 43 46 47 48 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 59 65 66 62 61 57 50 45 40 36 39 40 41 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 54 55 51 50 46 39 34 29 25 28 29 30 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT