* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ISAAC AL092018 09/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 50 55 59 63 67 71 73 74 72 68 65 65 64 66 69 69 V (KT) LAND 45 50 55 59 63 67 71 73 74 72 68 65 65 64 66 69 69 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 55 59 64 71 77 80 80 76 69 62 55 51 49 50 52 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 4 4 3 3 8 8 14 21 24 27 30 22 21 17 21 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 0 1 2 5 2 4 0 1 -4 0 1 3 5 3 1 SHEAR DIR 93 50 62 66 347 8 313 309 285 304 298 309 323 345 355 11 29 SST (C) 26.8 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.4 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 124 124 124 124 125 127 133 139 144 148 150 151 151 151 150 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 115 118 119 120 120 122 125 131 138 143 148 150 149 148 149 148 147 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.8 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.2 -53.3 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.4 -0.4 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 700-500 MB RH 56 53 52 51 49 47 49 47 49 51 54 55 55 55 57 59 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 17 17 17 16 16 16 16 16 14 13 11 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 104 100 104 102 91 79 78 53 31 10 -1 -9 -3 6 13 10 29 200 MB DIV 30 10 -4 3 19 10 20 0 14 29 12 17 -9 -10 -11 8 22 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 1 -3 -4 -1 -5 -3 -7 -7 -8 -5 -7 -2 -1 0 LAND (KM) 1882 1803 1726 1637 1554 1379 1215 1086 1001 746 532 467 374 266 256 200 246 LAT (DEG N) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.6 14.7 14.8 15.0 15.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 37.7 38.7 39.6 40.8 42.0 44.6 47.2 49.9 52.6 55.4 58.3 61.2 63.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 10 12 12 13 13 14 13 14 14 14 12 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 9 13 14 7 7 9 11 25 16 20 34 48 42 69 50 59 94 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 19.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 19. 20. 22. 22. 23. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -12. -14. -17. -20. -21. -21. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 10. 14. 18. 22. 26. 28. 29. 27. 23. 20. 20. 19. 21. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.5 37.7 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 28.5 to 2.0 0.93 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 10.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.06 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.78 3.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.4 895.4 to -71.5 0.64 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.4 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -3.0 0.60 1.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -30.8 to 188.1 0.19 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 23% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 30.4% 23.9% 17.2% 8.6% 17.8% 22.9% 15.5% Logistic: 26.9% 36.6% 38.4% 23.4% 6.8% 15.2% 8.7% 2.6% Bayesian: 18.2% 22.2% 37.7% 8.3% 4.4% 15.1% 15.3% 2.3% Consensus: 18.7% 29.7% 33.4% 16.3% 6.6% 16.0% 15.6% 6.8% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/18 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL092018 ISAAC 09/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 50 55 59 63 67 71 73 74 72 68 65 65 64 66 69 69 18HR AGO 45 44 49 53 57 61 65 67 68 66 62 59 59 58 60 63 63 12HR AGO 45 42 41 45 49 53 57 59 60 58 54 51 51 50 52 55 55 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 39 43 47 49 50 48 44 41 41 40 42 45 45 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT