* ATLANTIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * HELENE AL082018 09/09/18 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 60 66 71 78 84 87 83 79 71 65 61 55 54 55 61 63 V (KT) LAND 55 60 66 71 78 84 87 83 79 71 65 61 55 54 55 61 63 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 66 71 77 84 85 81 75 68 60 53 49 46 47 52 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 7 7 8 11 9 5 7 16 21 31 34 36 27 22 17 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 4 0 2 6 10 7 12 5 5 -4 -2 3 5 3 SHEAR DIR 66 64 66 99 87 65 204 245 220 220 219 204 209 203 228 220 252 SST (C) 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.1 26.1 26.1 25.9 26.0 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.9 27.4 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 126 130 132 131 132 127 115 115 113 113 112 114 117 124 130 132 134 ADJ. POT. INT. 123 128 131 130 131 124 111 109 106 105 103 104 107 112 116 116 114 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.8 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -53.0 -53.2 -54.1 -54.0 -54.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 72 71 71 73 74 71 69 66 60 54 48 40 41 40 46 46 47 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 26 27 28 31 31 31 31 30 28 28 28 26 27 28 33 33 850 MB ENV VOR 65 66 58 55 48 42 30 38 56 60 63 59 82 75 60 64 35 200 MB DIV 48 58 58 38 23 54 10 43 51 63 30 18 23 35 65 53 20 700-850 TADV 2 -2 -6 -1 2 -2 0 7 5 7 13 12 7 -1 1 8 5 LAND (KM) 664 795 929 1068 1209 1505 1772 2010 2074 2070 2101 2174 2336 2481 2228 1994 1772 LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.3 13.4 13.7 14.0 14.7 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.7 20.1 21.6 23.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 23.4 24.7 26.0 27.3 28.7 31.5 34.0 36.2 38.1 39.6 40.9 41.9 42.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 14 14 12 11 10 9 9 9 12 12 13 13 12 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 6 5 9 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 4 7 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 490 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 4. 5. 4. 2. -0. -2. -2. -5. -5. -4. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 11. 16. 23. 29. 32. 28. 24. 16. 10. 6. -0. -1. -0. 6. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 13.1 23.4 ** 2022 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL082018 HELENE 09/09/18 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 8.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 28.5 to 2.0 0.74 4.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 7.0 0.0 to 161.7 0.04 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 3.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 3.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 186.6 895.4 to -71.5 0.73 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.9 27.0 to 140.8 0.41 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -3.0 0.47 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 45.0 -30.8 to 188.1 0.35 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 104.5 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 6.8%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.4%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.3%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 12.2% 35.0% 25.1% 18.5% 9.3% 21.3% 18.1% 0.0% Logistic: 13.8% 27.2% 14.5% 8.5% 7.6% 14.6% 11.1% 3.5% Bayesian: 18.8% 53.5% 19.8% 5.4% 6.7% 16.7% 0.8% 0.6% Consensus: 14.9% 38.6% 19.8% 10.8% 7.9% 17.5% 10.0% 1.4% ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL082018 HELENE 09/09/2018 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 6( 9) 9( 17) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 60 66 71 78 84 87 83 79 71 65 61 55 54 55 61 63 18HR AGO 55 54 60 65 72 78 81 77 73 65 59 55 49 48 49 55 57 12HR AGO 55 52 51 56 63 69 72 68 64 56 50 46 40 39 40 46 48 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 52 58 61 57 53 45 39 35 29 28 29 35 37 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT